After a disappointing start to their weekend series against the Colorado Rockies, the New York Yankees brought the bats out on Saturday in a commanding victory.
With Gerrit Cole taking the mound on Sunday, can the Bombers avoid their sixth loss in eight games?
Let’s break down Yankees vs. Rockies in my MLB picks and predictions below.
Yankees vs Rockies odds
Yankees vs Rockies predictions
Gerrit Cole has had an odd season. It’s hard to say he's been anything but great with a 2.85 ERA through 117 innings so far, but his strikeout numbers are way down in 2023.
Cole went from the 92nd percentile in whiff rate a season ago to the 52nd percentile this season, and as a result, his strikeout rate has plummeted from 32.4% to 25.8%.
This is of particular concern when you’re playing at a park like Coors Field which will reward contact in ways that other sites won’t. Cole’s ground ball rate is all the way down to 38.1% this season with a fly ball rate that’s nearly five points higher than the league average. That’s going to make for a tricky start on Sunday.
On the other side, Chase Anderson has been awful. He owns a 6.89 ERA in 49 2/3 innings to this point, and it’s been over a month since he allowed fewer than five earned runs in a start.
With that, I think the best play here is on the Over. The Rockies swing the bats well at home and the Yankees should tee off on Anderson.
My best bet: Over 11.5 (+100 at DraftKings)
Yankees vs Rockies same-game parlay
Over 11 (-122)
Yankees ML (-235)
Harrison Bader to hit a home run (+420)
While the Yankees have been struggling at the plate ever since Aaron Judge went out due to injury, they remain Top 5 in home run-to-fly ball ratio. They’re about to face a pitcher in Anderson who has pitched to a whopping 35% fly ball rate in 2023, roughly 12 points higher than the league average.
So, I think the Yankees’ offense is the right move in this game, and I think backing Gerrit Cole is the smart thing to do as well. Sure, he’s allowed slightly more contact, but the Rockies have been swing-happy this year with an incredibly low walk rate and should fall victim to some strikeouts against the right-hander.
I also like Bader to homer here. No Yankee hits fly balls at a higher rate than their starting center fielder, and against Anderson, he should be primed for a long ball.
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Yankees vs Rockies moneyline and Over/Under analysis
I’ve tipped my hand with the blurb above, but I do think the Yankees are the right side of this one if you want to play the moneyline. If you want some reasons to believe, they’re still only striking out in 20.5% of plate appearances over the last two weeks and walking in a decent 8.5%.
New York has been putting together good at-bats and should be patient in waiting for the right Anderson pitch to pounce on. It also doesn’t hurt that Anderson is primarily a fastball and cutter pitcher given those are two offerings the Yankees have enjoyed hitting this year.
The Yankees are taking on 65% of the money here but 83% of the bets, and that makes a play on New York just slightly square. I’m not in love with that side as much as I am with the Over.
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Trend to know
The Yankees have cashed the moneyline in 16 of their last 28 away games (+4.80 units/14% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Rockies
Yankees vs Rockies game info
| Location: | Coors Field, Denver, CO |
| Date: | Sunday, July 16, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 3:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | YES, ATTR |
Starting pitchers
Gerrit Cole (9-2, 2.85 ERA): Cole last pitched in Tuesday’s All-Star Game, but prior to that he had recorded a 3.38 ERA in the month of July across 13 1/3 innings. Cole has struck out just 10 batters in those outings and walked three.
Chase Anderson (0-4, 6.89 ERA): The veteran has now impossibly allowed 27 earned runs in his last four outings, which have spanned just 13 1/3 innings. He’s been able to mix in strikeouts at times but he’s been burned by eight home runs in those starts.
