MLB Starting Pitcher Props & Picks for May 14: SP Prop Angles and Edges

The Rockies are so bad that the unthinkable is happening — it's time to back Patrick Corbin to record a win. That and more in Josh Inglis' pitching edges for Wednesday's MLB slate.

Josh Inglis - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Josh Inglis • Betting Analyst
May 14, 2025 • 12:28 ET • 4 min read
Texas Rangers MLB Patrick Corbin
Photo By - Imagn Images. Texas Rangers SP Patrick Corbin in MLB action.

I'm due for a winning day after starting the week 2-4 SU. There are a pair of doubleheaders today, which is always a good place to dig into pitcher props as well as a full board. Let’s have a day.

These are my three favorite pitcher props and MLB picks for Wednesday, May 14.

Josh's best starting pitcher props for May 14

  • Tigers Skubal u18.5 outs recorded (-120)
  • Rangers Corbin to record the win (+140)
  • Cards Fedde o5.5 hits allowed (-125)

Today's SP best bets

Red Sox vs. Tigers

The angle: People think Skubal is a pitcher who gets a long leash

The move: Tarik Skubal Under 18.5 outs (-120 at DraftKings)

Twenty points isn’t a lot to pay for this total, which is past the key number of 17.5. Tarik Skubal projects for 17.5 outs but coming out for the seventh inning is a tough ask vs. this Boston offense.

Skubal is an elite pitcher, but he is also not a starter who throws 95+ pitches every five days. He is coming off a season-high 96 pitches and is 6-2 to the Under on this total this season. 

It’s actually a good spot to add Under 4.5 hits for +218 as the books think the two props are negatively correlated.

Rockies vs. Rangers

The angle: The Rockies are that bad

The move: Patrick Corbin to record the win (+140 at bet365)

Patrick Corbin is a fade god but he has been taking people’s shekels of late thanks to some great pitching with a 2.60 ERA over his last five starts. He is coming off a seven-inning gem vs. Skubal and the Tigers.

Just pitch OK and get five innings done. That’s all you need vs. the Rockies. 

Colorado is other-worldly bad. They have seven wins, which prorates to a 27-135 SU record. They already have a minus-132 run differential, which is only going to get bigger as the season goes on.

This is an embarrassing franchise that is sending another bad arm to the bump.

This should be a bet at +110 or better every game vs. the Rockies. Just get to 15 outs, Patrick. 

Cardinals vs. Phillies

The angle: Fedde is the opener of a doubleheader and could have a longer leash

The move: Erick Fedde Over 5.5 hits allowed (-125 at bet365)

Let’s touch that second doubleheader. Erick Fedde has some bad numbers vs. a few of the Philly hitters, including Bryce Harper, who is 11-for-22 vs. the St. Louis starter.

He has gone Over this number in five of his last six starts and his leash should be longer than usual because of the opener of a doubleheader. He is already a pitcher who touches 95+ pitches regularly, so triple-digits is on the table today. 

Don’t let his surface numbers fool you. His projected and expected metrics are telling a different story.

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Josh Inglis - Covers
Betting Analyst

Josh Inglis is a rising star in the sports betting content space, specializing in MLB, NHL, and NFL markets. Since joining Covers in 2018, Josh has focused his betting expertise on player props and derivative markets, finding them easier for beating the closing line compared to sides and totals. His engaging analysis and content have been showcased on major networks such as TSN and NBC. Josh is a prolific bettor, tracking over 2,500 bets annually and he consistently shares his results through monthly transparency reports. At Covers, he is renowned for his MLB release shows and NHL Puck Props, which are integral parts of the site's live content lineup.

Before his tenure at Covers, Josh spent a decade teaching while pursuing sports media on the side. He has also contributed to live global senior-level broadcasts for the WBSC.

Josh advocates for sports bettors to bet early, emphasizing the importance of securing better numbers by beating the public to the market. He also advises having multiple sportsbook accounts to ensure access to the best possible odds. His preferred sportsbook is bet365, which he favors for its extensive range of player prop markets and live betting options.

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