I'm due for a winning day after starting the week 2-4 SU. There are a pair of doubleheaders today, which is always a good place to dig into pitcher props as well as a full board. Let’s have a day.
These are my three favorite pitcher props and MLB picks for Wednesday, May 14.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for May 14
Skubal u18.5 outs recorded (-120)
Corbin to record the win (+140)
Fedde o5.5 hits allowed (-125)
Today's SP best bets
Red Sox vs. Tigers
The angle: People think Skubal is a pitcher who gets a long leash
The move: Tarik Skubal Under 18.5 outs (-120 at DraftKings)
Twenty points isn’t a lot to pay for this total, which is past the key number of 17.5. Tarik Skubal projects for 17.5 outs but coming out for the seventh inning is a tough ask vs. this Boston offense.
Skubal is an elite pitcher, but he is also not a starter who throws 95+ pitches every five days. He is coming off a season-high 96 pitches and is 6-2 to the Under on this total this season.
It’s actually a good spot to add Under 4.5 hits for +218 as the books think the two props are negatively correlated.
Rockies vs. Rangers
The angle: The Rockies are that bad
The move: Patrick Corbin to record the win (+140 at bet365)
Patrick Corbin is a fade god but he has been taking people’s shekels of late thanks to some great pitching with a 2.60 ERA over his last five starts. He is coming off a seven-inning gem vs. Skubal and the Tigers.
Just pitch OK and get five innings done. That’s all you need vs. the Rockies.
Colorado is other-worldly bad. They have seven wins, which prorates to a 27-135 SU record. They already have a minus-132 run differential, which is only going to get bigger as the season goes on.
This is an embarrassing franchise that is sending another bad arm to the bump.
This should be a bet at +110 or better every game vs. the Rockies. Just get to 15 outs, Patrick.
Cardinals vs. Phillies
The angle: Fedde is the opener of a doubleheader and could have a longer leash
The move: Erick Fedde Over 5.5 hits allowed (-125 at bet365)
Let’s touch that second doubleheader. Erick Fedde has some bad numbers vs. a few of the Philly hitters, including Bryce Harper, who is 11-for-22 vs. the St. Louis starter.
He has gone Over this number in five of his last six starts and his leash should be longer than usual because of the opener of a doubleheader. He is already a pitcher who touches 95+ pitches regularly, so triple-digits is on the table today.
Don’t let his surface numbers fool you. His projected and expected metrics are telling a different story.
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