One of baseball's oldest rivalries gets renewed for the first time in 2026 when the New York Yankees visit the Boston Red Sox tonight.
My Yankees vs. Red Sox predictions aren't bullish on New York starter Luis Gil, whose command has floundered in the early going.
I explain further why Boston will emerge victorious in a high-scoring final with my MLB picks on Tuesday, April 14.
Who will win Yankees vs Red Sox today: Red Sox moneyline (-115)
For the moment, I’m kind of out on New York Yankees hurler Luis Gil. He needs to regain my trust, and there’s not much to suggest that will happen anytime soon.
He’s posted some of the worst underlying metrics in 2026 to begin the season for any starting pitcher. Getting simply hit hard regularly per inning with an average exit velocity that sits in the bottom 5% of the sport and an overall hard-hit rate that is only slightly better.
The command issues that tanked his 2025 persist, and a 6.40 xERA suggests a player who has been more bad than unlucky. The Boston Red Sox have enough power in the lineup to hurt him. They’ve done it before, and the sixth-best hard-hit rate in the league looms large here.
While Connelly Early’s 2.29 ERA is propped up by a 5.25 xERA, his 74th-percentile run value suggests real competence. At a pick-em price, the Red Sox have the better matchup.
COVERS INTEL: Gil's chase rate (22.4%) is in the ninth percentile as his strikeout rate (17.1%) has cratered in 2026.
Yankees vs Red Sox Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-105)
It was a fairly easy Over bet for me as I projected a total of 9.4. The cool temperatures probably make this total a half run lower than it would otherwise be, and I get it, but it still isn't enough to overcome the struggles these two pitchers have.
We’ve talked about Gil and why Boston will have success, but New York should be able to score, too.
Early's 13% barrel rate, paired with an average exit velocity that’s actually worse than Gil's, is going to give the Bronx Bombers clear paths to run-scoring opportunities. I’d play this to 9.5 with a fair amount of confidence.
- ML/RL bets: 6-5, +.92 units
- Over/Under bets: 7-5, +1.80 units
Yankees vs Red Sox odds
- Moneyline: New York -110 | Boston -110
- Run line: New York -1.5 (+150) | Boston +1.5 (-178)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-105) | Under 8.5 (-110)
Yankees vs Red Sox trend
The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Over in 31 of their last 50 away games (+9.25 Units / 16% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Red Sox.
How to watch Yankees vs Red Sox and game info
| Location | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date | Tuesday, April 21, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Luis Gil (0-1, 7.00 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher | Connelly Early (1-0, 2.29 ERA) |
Yankees vs Red Sox latest injuries
Yankees vs Red Sox weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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