Yankees vs Red Sox Picks and Predictions: Yanks Gain Leverage in Wild Card Race

The Bronx and Boston tangle again Saturday, with ever-increasing Wild-Card stakes on the line. Find out who to trust in this heated rivalry as we break down Saturday's matchup with our Yankees vs Red Sox picks.

Last Updated: Sep 25, 2021 8:13 AM ET Read Time: 3 min
Giancarlo Stanton Aaron Judge New York Yankees MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The New York Yankees will be looking to beat the Boston Red Sox for the second day in a row when these teams meet at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts at 4:10 p.m. ET on Saturday, September 25. 

With last night’s 8-3 victory, the Yankees are now only one game back in the race for home-field advantage in the AL Wild Card Game. 

Will Boston bounce back with a win and create some separation again? Find out in our Yankees vs. Red Sox picks and predictions. 

Yankees vs Red Sox game info

Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
Date: Saturday, September 25, 2021
Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
TV: MLBN

Yankees vs Red Sox odds

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Yankees vs Red Sox betting preview

Starting pitchers

Nestor Cortes Jr. (2-2, 2.79 ERA): The last time Cortes allowed more than three runs in a game was against the Kansas City Royals on August 10. The lefty isn’t the type to go out and shut down his opponent in a lengthy outing, but he is extremely likely to give the Yankees a solid five or so innings. With the way New York’s offense has been clicking, that’s all the team should need from Cortes. 

Nick Pivetta (9-7, 4.63 ERA): Pivetta hasn’t given the Red Sox six innings since August 13, and the righty has still allowed three or more runs in four of his last five appearances. Pivetta has really struggled with his control late in the season, as the 28-year-old has walked at least two batters in four of his last six starts. He has also given up at least two homers in two of his last four outings, which isn’t great considering he hasn’t been on the mound all that long. 

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Yankees: Clint Frazier OF (out), Jonathan Loaisiga RP (out), Zack Britton RP (out), Miguel Andujar 3B (out), Aaron Hicks OF (out)
Red Sox: Danny Santana OF (out)
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Yankees are 6-2 in their last eight road games against teams with winning records. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Red Sox.

Moneyline pick

Pivetta started against the Yankees on August 18 and New York was able to get him out of the game in the second inning. Pivetta walked three batters in that game, and he gave up four runs on four hits because of the extra runners he put on base. Obviously, that one start isn’t enough to base a pick on, but it is definitely important heading into this matchup. The Yankees no longer have the same struggles against right-handed pitching that they did earlier in the year, and this offense is scorching hot coming into this game.

Over the last 15 games, nobody in the league has hit more homers than New York’s 32. The Yankees are also second in the league in slugging percentage in that span, and they just so happen to be facing a pitcher that has had trouble keeping the ball in the park. With that in mind, you’ll want to keep an eye on guys like Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge and Joey Gallo. Stanton was 3 for 5 with a homer and four RBIs in last night’s game, and he has now homered in two of the last three games. Judge has also been seeing the ball well over the last few weeks, and the same goes for Gallo. Gallo has had an up-and-down year as a member of the Yankees, but he does most of his damage against righties and appears to enjoy the big stakes in these games. 

As previously mentioned, Cortes won’t be asked to go and blank the Red Sox in this game. His job is to give the Yankees a chance to win with their offense, and he has done that all year long. That shouldn’t change against Boston in this one. Expect Cortes to give New York five serviceable innings here. 

PREDICTION: Yankees ML (-102)

Over/Under pick

Over the last two seasons, the Under is 8-0 when the Yankees are on the road against teams that average 3.5 or more extra-base hits per game. The Under is also 40-25 when New York has played against teams with winning records this season, and 42-25 when facing division opponents this year. 

If the trends aren’t enough to sway you, there’s also the fact that each of Cortes’ last five starts have gone Under this number. Also, both of his appearances against Boston went well Under this total. And for as bad as Pivetta’s last start against New York went, there were still only seven total runs scored in that game. 

Overall, Cortes should be able to turn in something close to a quality start in this one. If he does that, the Yankees would be able to score five or six runs on Pivetta and Under bettors would likely still cash. That’s what makes this such a good value, even coming off a high-scoring game in which we saw two excellent pitchers toeing the rubber. 

PREDICTION: Under 10.5 (-110) 

Yankees vs Red Sox betting card

  • Yankees ML (-102) 
  • Under 10.5 (-110) 

Picks made on 9/25/2021 at 1:05 a.m. ET

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