The New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox renew hostilities in the game’s greatest rivalry as the American League East foes begin a four-game set at fabled Fenway Park.
The Yankees trail the Red Sox by seven games in the division and if the Bronx Bombers want to make a dent in that deficit the time is now. Is there value with the Yankees as MLB betting road dogs or are the Red Sox favored for good reason?
Check out our MLB free picks and predictions for Yankees vs. Red Sox on Thursday, July 22, and find out.
Yankees vs Red Sox game info
• Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
• Date: Thursday, July 22, 2021
• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• TV: NESN, YES
Yankees vs Red Sox odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
MLB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonBoston hit TwinSpires' odds board as modest -120 chalk and quickly got to -128 on the way to -137, where the moneyline sits at 4:15 p.m. ET. The Red Sox are taking 57 percent of bets and 72 percent of money. "We saw some respected money come in on the Red Sox as soon as we opened, moving that line up," TwinSpires trading analyst Zachary Lucas said. The total moved from 10 (Over -110) to 9.5 (Over -118), with 74 percent of bets/56 percent of cash on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameYankees vs Red Sox betting preview
Starting pitchers
Jordan Montgomery (3-5, 4.18 ERA): Montgomery has been Mr. Consistency for the Yankees this season. The lefty has allowed three earned runs or fewer in nine of his last 10 starts and has pitched at least into the sixth inning in eight of those games.
Tanner Houck (0-2, 3.38 ERA): The Red Sox rookie is preparing to make his third start of the season. His last appearance was on July 16, where he earned a three-inning save against the Yankees, shutting them out and giving up just one hit.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Yankees: Aaron Judge RF (Out), Gio Urshela 3B (Out), Luke Voit 1B (Out), Clint Frazier OF (Out), Jonathan Loaisiga RP (Out), Nestor Cortes RP (Out), Wandy Peralta RP (Out), Kyle Higashioka C (Out), Miguel Andujar OF (Out), Tim Locastro OF (Out), Aaron Hicks OF (Out), Trey Amburgey OF (Out), Michael King RP (Out).
Red Sox: Danny Santana OF (Day-to-Day), Ryan Brasier RP (Out), Matt Andriese RP (Out), Marwin Gonzalez UTIL (Out), Christian Arroyo 1B (Out), Matt Carasiti RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings between the Yankees and Red Sox. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Red Sox.
Moneyline pick
The Red Sox bounced back after a stretch that saw them go 2-6 by taking consecutive games in convincing fashion over the Toronto Blue Jays. They’ll hope to carry that momentum over into this big series against the Yankees, who despite missing a bunch of players to injuries have won nine of their last 12 overall.
But things will get tougher in Boston, where the Yankees got swept earlier this season. Houck will make his first start since April but pitched well in his rehab stint in AAA before his impressive performance against the Yankees. The right-hander relies mostly on three pitches: a four-seamer, slider, and sinker.
He faces a New York lineup that despite getting good results lately, is still very much all or nothing. The Yankees rank seventh in home runs but 24th in scoring and even though they are 9-3 in their last 12 games they have scored four runs or fewer in six of those contests.
Countering Houck is Montgomery and while the lefty has been solid, he has still allowed three runs in each of his last four starts. He faces a Red Sox team that ranks seventh in batting average and fifth in OPS when it comes to hitting against southpaws.
With the Red Sox also having the better of the two bullpens over the last month, the value is with the home team as a short favorite.
PREDICTION: Red Sox (-120)
Over/Under pick
When it comes to the total, 10 seems a little too high for a matchup that should feature a high level of intensity between two bitter rivals, particularly when you consider they have combined to score 7.17 runs per game over their last six meetings.
The Red Sox lineup got back on track against the Blue Jays but scored just six runs in their last three games against the Yankees. And while the Red Sox normally hit lefties well, Montgomery has recorded two quality starts against them this season.
Meanwhile, in addition to the fact that the Yankees lineup is one of the most inconsistent in baseball, they rank 25th in batting average against right-handers and are still missing key pieces in Aaron Judge, Luke Voit, and Gio Urshela. Bet the Under in this one.
PREDICTION: Under 10 (-110)
Yankees vs Red Sox betting card
- Red Sox ML (-120)
- Under 10 (-110)
Picks made on 7/22/2021 at 12:13 a.m. ET
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