MLB Predictions and Moneyline Picks for Friday, July 10

Full-slate Friday is here, as the MLB schedule offers no shortage of betting opportunities, but not every favorite is worth backing.

After breaking down every matchup, I've narrowed the slate to my favorite MLB picks for July 10, targeting teams with the strongest pitching edges, matchup advantages, and paths to victory.

MLB moneyline picks for July 10

Matchup	Pick
Phillies vs Tigers	-111
Brewers  vs Pirates	-117
Yankees vs Nationals	+144
Royals vs Orioles	+141
Cubs vs Reds	-108
Guardians vs Marlins	-111
Mariners vs Rays	-111
Athletics vs White Sox	-147
Astros vs Rangers	-130
Braves vs Cardinals	-153
Angels vs Twins	-138
Red Sox vs Mets	+133
Blue Jays vs Padres	-115
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers	-239
Rockies vs Giants	-144

Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 7-10.

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Expert MLB moneyline picks for July 10

Phillies vs Tigers: Tigers (-111)

Tigers win probability: 52%

With Aaron Nola on the mound, owning a 6.61 ERA over his last three outings and a 5.88 ERA over his last five starts, I have to lean toward the Tigers in this matchup.

Detroit’s offense has been performing at a higher level than Philadelphia’s over their last six games, creating a favorable edge at the plate.

On the other side, Jack Flaherty has been rock solid over his last five starts, posting a 1.90 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. 

Brewers vs Pirates: Pirates (-117)

Pirates win probability: 54%

Braxton Ashcraft has been pure nails for the Pirates this season and has continued to pitch well over his last five starts, posting a 3.14 ERA, .331 xERA, and 1.15 WHIP.

The Brewers offense has gone cold over their last six games, posting a sub 100 wRC+, .138 ISO, and just a 6.4% barrel rate. Meanwhile, the Pirates have been rolling during that stretch, owning a 141 wRC+, .369 wOBA, and .830 OPS.

Brandon Sproat has been just as good, if not better, than Ashcraft over his last five starts, but Pittsburgh’s offense has been absolutely howling. That gives the Pirates the edge in this matchup.

Yankees vs Nationals: Nationals (+144)

Nationals win probability: 41%

I'm not passing up on one of the more complete lineups in baseball as an underdog against one of the worst offenses over the last month. Ryan Weathers should not be priced at -147, especially considering he owns a 5.64 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over his last five starts.

The Yankees offense has struggled over its last 12 games, posting just a 55 wRC+, .146 ISO, and .571 OPS. Why would I pay juice on a lineup that has been this cold?

Give me the Nationals as the underdog.

Royals vs Orioles: Royals (+141)

Royals win probability: 42%

With the sudden offensive surge from the Royals, I do like them at this price. Over their last six games, Kansas City owns a .393 wOBA, 156 wRC+, and .197 ISO while consistently putting together quality at-bats.

The Orioles have been solid at limiting strikeouts and generating walks, but Brandon Young has allowed significantly more contact and baserunners over his last three outings compared to Luinder Avila.

I just really like the value in backing Kansas City at this number this evening.

Cubs vs Reds: Cubs (-108)

Cubs win probability: 52%

I truly believe Hunter Greene is one of the most overhyped pitchers in baseball, and I simply cannot justify backing the Reds in this spot.

Their offense has been far too inconsistent, while Shota Imanaga and the Cubs have been playing some strong baseball over the past few weeks. With Chicago sitting at just $1.08 on the moneyline, I’m happy to lay the price and back the Cubs in this matchup.

Guardians vs Marlins: Marlins (-111)

Marlins win probability: 52%

Sure, Parker Messick has been nothing short of phenomenal for the Guardians this season, but Cleveland’s offense has been frozen solid over the last 21+ games. Meanwhile, Sandy Alcantara has looked much better at home and has shown positive signs in his most recent outings.

Add in a Marlins offense that has been one of the hottest units in baseball over the last month, and I’m comfortable backing Miami in this spot.

Mariners vs Rays: Rays (-111)

Rays win probability: 52%

This was a tough one, especially with how poorly both offenses have performed over their last few games. However, with Seattle sending out Luis Castillo, I’m all over Tampa Bay in this spot.

Castillo consistently allows a ton of hard contact while generating very few strikeouts, and we all know the Rays are one of the better teams in baseball at putting the ball in play. Plus, Nick Martinez has been very solid at home, owning a 3.04 ERA and 1.18 WHIP.

Pay the slight juice and back the hometown team.

Athletics vs White Sox: White Sox (-147)

White Sox win probability: 60%

Aaron Civale enters with one of the worst pitcher ratings on Batters-Box this evening, facing six elite rated hitters and three additional bats with strong ratings. He has been a mess all season, and with Munetaka Murakami returning to the lineup, I expect a major boost in offensive firepower.

There is simply too much juice in this lineup, especially inside that ballpark, for the White Sox not to come out swinging.

Astros vs Rangers: Astros (-130)

Astros win probability: 56%

With the well-known struggles of Cal Quantrill on the mound for the Rangers this evening, I’m automatically leaning toward the Astros, who have been playing much better baseball as of late.

Over their last six games, Houston’s wRC+, wOBA, ISO, and OPS have all improved, and on the other side, right-hander Hunter Brown has been much better on the road.

Knowing how bad Quantrill can be, I love the Astros in this spot.

Braves vs Cardinals: Braves (-153)

Braves win probability: 60%

It is very difficult for me to find value on the Cardinals with Chris Sale taking the mound, especially with how dominant he has been this season.

On the road, Sale owns a 2.96 ERA, 2.95 xERA, and 1.09 WHIP. On the other side, the Braves draw Kyle Leahy, who has struggled at home with a 5.16 xERA and 1.37 WHIP.

With Atlanta’s offense starting to turn things around, I like the Braves to come out on top in this spot.

Angels vs Twins: Twins (-138)

Twins win probability: 58%

Zebby Matthews versus Grayson Rodriguez, good God, that is a gross pitching matchup.

Runs feel inevitable, but the question is which offense can do enough damage. Matthews has been much better at home, while Rodriguez has been significantly better on the road. Both pitchers have their flaws, but the bigger question is which lineup I can trust?

The answer is the Twins. Over their last 21 games, Minnesota owns a 124 wRC+, .348 wOBA, and .190 ISO. Meanwhile, the Angels have struggled, posting a 100 wRC+, a 26.4% strikeout rate, and a .705 OPS during that same stretch.

With the offenses trending in opposite directions, I have to back the Twins in this spot.

Red Sox vs Mets: Red Sox (+133)

Red Sox win probability: 43%

Giving us Sonny Gray as a +133 underdog feels wild to me, especially with how dominant he has been recently. Over his last five starts, Gray has maintained a 1.62 ERA, 2.23 xERA, and 0.87 WHIP.

Sure, Nolan McLean has been solid, but the Red Sox offense has been humming, and I believe Boston is the better side to back in this matchup.

Blue Jays vs Padres: Padres (-115)

Padres win probability: 54%

Another disgusting pitching matchup, this time between Shane Bieber and JP Sears. In this spot, I’m siding with the hometown Padres, as I’ve liked the way they have been swinging the bat over the last two weeks.

The Blue Jays have been ice-cold over their last six games, posting just a 44 wRC+ and a .095 ISO. The Padres have not exactly been lighting the world on fire either, but with the advantage of playing in front of the hometown crowd on a Friday night, I’m comfortable backing San Diego here.

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers: Dodgers (-239)

Dodgers win probability: 70%

Short and sweet, Shohei Ohtani takes the mound this evening against one of the coldest offenses in baseball over the last month.

Until the Diamondbacks start turning things around at the plate, I want no part of them.

Rockies vs Giants: Giants (-144)

Giants win probability: 59%

The Giants draw Tanner Gordon this evening, who owns one of the worst pitcher ratings on Batters-Box today. San Francisco has a staggering NINE elite rated hitters against him.

Robbie Ray has been excellent in his last few outings, owning a 1.23 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. With the Rockies cooling off this week, I want the red-hot Giants in this spot.

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