The New York Yankees are at Tropicana Field for the final game of a three-game series against the Tampa Bay Rays.
Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and Yankees vs. Rays predictions on Sunday, May 12.
Yankees vs Rays prediction
My best bet
Juan Soto Over 1.5 total bases (+100 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
The New York Yankees may sit 1.5 games back of the Orioles in the AL East, but New York is home to the best player in the division this season. New outfielder Juan Soto has truly put the bomb in the Bronx Bombers nickname with the way he’s been mashing.
The AL MVP odds favorite, Soto is one of the most terrifying bats in baseball and should have Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Tyler Alexander sweating at the thought of the three-time All-Star entering the batter’s box.
Meanwhile, Soto has been on an absolute tear with the former San Diego Padre leading the Pinstripes in hits (49), home runs (9), each slash line stat (.316/.419/.548), OPS (.968), and total bases (85).
While Soto has had a string of quieter games, he’s poised to bounce back against Alexander and his arsenal of pitches. The Rays’ starter has just one pitch he uses more than 25% of the time with his cutter (31.7%).
That’s a pitch Soto hasn’t had much trouble with in the last five seasons. He’s batted at least .294 against it each year with a .514 or better SLG. Alexander’s second go-to pitch is his four-seamer (21.9%), a pitch Soto would love to see.
He’s having his most success against four-seamers this season with an outrageous .364 average, .773 SLG, and run value of seven. He’s been dynamite against fastballs overall with a .349 average, 30 hits, six doubles, one triple, and seven homers.
The only other three pitches that Alexander really uses are his changeup (16.7%), sweeper (16.5%), and sinker (11.3%). Soto’s hitting at least .300 against both the changeup and sinker this season with a .500 and .640 SLG against them, respectively.
While he’s not hitting the sweeper quite as well (.286 average), it was one of the pitches he hit hardest last year with a .310 average and .690 SLG.
Yankees vs Rays same-game parlay (SGP)
Juan Soto Over 1.5 total bases
Aaron Judge Over 0.5 hits
Isaac Paredes Over 0.5 hits
It’s been a less-than-stellar start to the season for Aaron Judge, but the former MVP can recapture his All-Star form against Alexander. Judge is hitting .286 with a .571 SLG against cutters this season, and has collected 21 hits and five homers against fastballs overall.
On the Rays side, third baseman Isaac Paredes has been Tampa Bay’s most consistent bat. He leads the team in hits (41), batting average (.301), SLG (.522), and total bases (71). With Luis Gil taking the mound for the Yankees, Paredes can record his seventh hit in five games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Yankees vs Rays odds
Yankees vs Rays live odds
Yankees vs Rays opening odds
- Run line: New York -1.5 (+125) | Tampa Bay +1.5 (-150)
- Moneyline: New York -135 | Tampa Bay +115
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Yankees vs Rays spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Yankees opened as a -135 to -150 moneyline favorite on the road against the Rays and the line has seen minimal movement.
- New York sits second in the AL East this season at 26-15, while Tampa Bay is fourth in the division at 20-20.
- The Over/Under opened between 8 and 8.5 and hasn’t moved. Some books are offering the Over at even money and plus money.
- The Rays have been one of the best Over betting teams in MLB this season at 22-17-1, but the Yankees are just 17-22-2.
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Yankees vs Rays trend
The Rays have hit gone Over the total in 31 of their last 50 games (+11.65 units / 21% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Rays
Yankees vs Rays game info
| Location: | Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL |
| Date: | Sunday, 5-12-2024 |
| First pitch: | 1:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | YES, Bally Sports SUN |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Luis Gil (3-1, 2.92 ERA) |
| Rays starting pitcher: | Tyler Alexander (1-1, 4.96 ERA) |
Yankees vs Rays latest injuries
Yankees vs Rays weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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