The New York Yankees go for the series sweep vs. the Cleveland Guardians this afternoon in a finale that pits Carlos Rodon against rookie Parker Messick.
Rodon owns a career 2.54 ERA in 24 appearances against the Guardians, and the bigger swing factor is a Cleveland bullpen that's been used extensively in recent games.
Here are my Yankees vs. Guardians predictions and MLB picks for Wednesday, June 10.
Who will win Yankees vs Guardians today: Yankees moneyline (+100)
Carlos Rodon is an elite hard-hit suppressor with a ground-ball rate in the Top 80th percentile of baseball and a hard-hit rate that lands the same. I fully expect him to lean on that strength today.
Furthermore, there's not much pop in this Cleveland Guardians lineup outside Jose Ramirez, best indicated by its second-to-last barrel rating, which means Rodon's soft-contact profile gets stronger.
While I like Parker Messick a great deal, the game tilts once he exits. With the Guardians' bullpen overextended, manager Stephen Vogt is forced to lean on non-premium arms.
Take the New York Yankees down to -115.
COVERS INTEL: 
Yankees vs Guardians Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (-122)
The exhausted Cleveland bullpen carries roughly four innings behind Messick today, and Carlos Rodon walks 15.4% of hitters in 2026, ranking in the bottom third percentile.
While I expect Rodon to have a good day, it's unlikely to come without giving up a few runs.
On the other side, the Yankees will make hay later in the game against a few bullpen arms that have hard-hit issues. Play to 8.
- ML/RL bets: 28-23, +4.71 units
- Over/Under bets: 31-20, +13.87 units
Yankees vs Guardians odds
- Moneyline: Yankees +100 | Guardians -115
- Run line: Yankees +1.5 | Guardians -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Yankees vs Guardians trend
The Yankees have covered the first five innings run line in 30 of their last 50 road games for +7.80 units and a 13% ROI.
How to watch Yankees vs Guardians and game info
| Location | Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date | Wednesday, June 10, 2026 |
| First pitch | 1:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | YES, Guardians.TV |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Carlos Rodon (1-2, 2.88 ERA) |
| Guardians starting pitcher | Parker Messick (6-2, 2.40 ERA) |
Yankees vs Guardians latest injuries
Yankees vs Guardians weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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