The New York Yankees go for the series sweep vs. the Cleveland Guardians on Wednesday afternoon in a finale that pits Carlos Rodon against rookie Parker Messick.
Rodon owns a career 2.54 ERA in 24 appearances against the Guardians, and the bigger swing factor is a Cleveland bullpen that has been used extensively over the past few nights.
Here are my Yankees vs. Guardians predictions and MLB picks for Wednesday, June 10.
Who will win Yankees vs Guardians today: Yankees moneyline (+100)
Carlos Rodon is an elite hard-hit suppressor with a ground-ball rate in the top 80th percentile of baseball and a hard-hit rate that lands the same. I fully expect him to lean on that strength today.
Furthermore, there's not much pop in this Cleveland Guardians lineup outside Jose Ramirez, best indicated by its second-to-last barrel rating, which means Rodon's soft-contact profile gets stronger.
While I like Parker Messick a great deal, the game tilts once he exits. With the Guardians' bullpen overextended, manager Stephen Vogt is forced to lean on non-premium arms.
Take the New York Yankees down to -115.
COVERS INTEL: 
Yankees vs Guardians Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (-122)
The exhausted Cleveland bullpen carries roughly four innings behind Messick today, and Carlos Rodon walks 15.4% of hitters in 2026, ranking in the bottom third percentile.
While I expect Rodon to have a good day, it's unlikely to come without giving up a few runs.
On the other side, the Yankees will make hay later in the game against a few bullpen arms that have hard-hit issues. Play to 8.
- ML/RL bets: 28-23, +4.71 units
- Over/Under bets: 31-20, +13.87 units
Yankees vs Guardians odds
- Moneyline: Yankees +100 | Guardians -115
- Run line: Yankees +1.5 | Guardians -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Yankees vs Guardians trend
The Yankees have covered the F5 run line in 30 of their last 50 away games (+7.80 Units / 13% ROI)
How to watch Yankees vs Guardians and game info
| Location | Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date | Wednesday, June 10, 2026 |
| First pitch | 1:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | YES, Guardians.TV |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Carlos Rodon (1-2, 2.88 ERA) |
| Guardians starting pitcher | Parker Messick (6-2, 2.40 ERA) |
Yankees vs Guardians latest injuries
Yankees vs Guardians weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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