Yankees vs Blue Jays Picks and Predictions: Stars Aligning For Aaron Judge in TO

Stuck at 60 home runs on the season, Aaron Judge is waiting for his opportunity to strike with an AL record-tying 61st dinger. Up against a vulnerable Kevin Gausman, tonight might just be the night — as our MLB betting picks break down.

Tony Sartori - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Tony Sartori • Betting Analyst
Sep 26, 2022 • 11:25 ET • 4 min read
Aaron Judge New York Yankees MLB
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We have the first matchup of this three-game AL East intradivisional series with the Toronto Blue Jays hosting the New York Yankees. This contest is the 17th meeting between these two clubs this season with the Yankees having won nine of the first 16 matchups.

Will the Yankees take care of business once again or can the Blue Jays pull off the win as a short home favorite? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Yankees vs Blue Jays.

Yankees vs Blue Jays best odds

Yankees vs Blue Jays picks and predictions

I think tonight will finally be the night. On September 26, 2022, I believe that Aaron Judge will tie Roger Maris for the most home runs in a single season in AL history.

Projected to take the mound for Toronto is right-hander Kevin Gausman. Through 29 starts this season, Gausman is 12-10 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.24 WHIP.

While those numbers are pretty solid, he has had a problem in surrendering the long ball recently as he has allowed seven home runs over his last five outings. Over that stretch, Gausman has produced a 4.06 ERA.

This weak stretch of pitching should continue against New York. Across his last six starts against the Yankees, Gausman is 1-4 with a 6.44 ERA and 1.65 ERA.

Through 142 career plate appearances against Gausman, this current New York roster boasts a .292 BA, .477 SLG, and .352 wOBA. One of the biggest contributors to these numbers has been Aaron Judge.

Between Judge’s 28 career plate appearances against Gausman, he has homered three times and possesses a .364 BA, .864 SLG, and .544 wOBA. We should not expect regression in this particular matchup as he has posted a .403 xBA, .860 xSLG, and .561 xwOBA through those 28 plate appearances.

You guys all know Judge’s outstanding numbers this season, but here they are anyways as he makes his chase for 61. Through 148 games this season, Judge has posted a .314 BA, .697 SLG, and 1.118 OPS.

Somehow, his metrics are even stronger as he boasts a .467 xwOBA, .308 xBA, and .720 xSLG. Judge is a stronger hitter this season when facing right-handed pitching, evidenced by his .317 BA, .718 SLG, and 1.148 OPS.

Stuck at 60 homers over his last 21 plate appearances, I think tonight is finally the night that he ties Maris.

My best bet: Aaron Judge to hit a home run (+220)

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Yankees vs Blue Jays moneyline analysis

I would lean towards the Yankees’ moneyline as they are currently riding a seven-game win streak, but I am not confident enough to pull the trigger. The main reason for this concern is New York’s projected starting pitcher, right-hander Luis Severino.

It has been a tougher stretch for Severino in the back-half of the season, who is 2-2 with a 4.50 ERA over his last six games. To be fair, the last outing was his first start since mid-July due to a lat injury and was stronger than his five-game stretch before heading to the IL.

However, that first game back was against Pittsburgh. Before then, we saw a clearer picture of Severino’s directional trend, which included a game against tonight’s opponent.

In that game against Toronto, Severino allowed five runs through five innings in a 10-9 loss. Over his last two games against the Blue Jays, he possesses a 7.45 ERA and 1.52 WHIP.

Since August 1, Toronto ranks eighth in the league in BA, 11th in SLG, eighth in OPS, and seventh in wOBA when facing right-handed pitching.

Yankees vs Blue Jays Over/Under analysis

As you can probably guess by now, I would lean towards taking the Over in this game. However, New York boasts one of the strongest bullpens in baseball which makes me wary of going in that direction.

Since August 1, the Yankees’ relief pitching ranks eighth in ERA, ninth in BA, sixth in SLG, and 11th in wOBA. Additionally, last night’s game against the Red Sox was shortened due to rain.

Because of the weather, they did not throw out a single reliever so the entire bullpen should be available. It is worth noting that the Over has been a strong trend for each team.

Across New York’s last 10 games, the Over has gone 7-3 while it has gone 6-3-1 across Toronto’s last 10.

Yankees vs Blue Jays trend to know

The Yankees have won seven straight games. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Blue Jays

Yankees vs Blue Jays game info

Location: Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON
Date: Monday, September 26, 2022
First pitch: 7:07 p.m. ET
TV: Rogers Sportsnet, YES

Starting pitchers

Luis Severino (6-3, 3.36 ERA): This game marks Severino’s second start since returning from a lat injury that has sidelined him since mid-July. In his first outing, he allowed one run on two hits through five innings pitched against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Severino boasts a four-pitch arsenal, although he heavily relies on his 4-seam fastball as he throws it 46.7% of the time.

Kevin Gausman (12-10, 3.32 ERA): Making his 30th start of the season for Toronto, Gausman will look to keep the Blue Jays in that first AL Wild Card spot. It has been a tougher stretch for Gausman recently, posting a 4.06 ERA over his last five starts. The former fourth overall pick heavily utilizes his 4-seam fastball in order to set up his split-finger fastball, which has been one of the nastiest pitches in baseball this season.

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