Following yesterday’s perfect performance from Domingo German, the New York Yankees and Clarke Schmidt have been pegged as -180 faves by MLB odds. They'll look to continue shaming the Oakland Athletics who are 2-11 straight up following that seven-game winning streak and didn’t have a listed starter early this morning before announcing Hogan Harris.
After failing to get any of the 27 batters on base last night, fading a bottom-of-the-order Oakland hitter in Tyler Wade — who is a big pinch-hit risk — for plus money seems like the sharp thing to do in today’s matinee.
Find out where my best bets lie in my MLB picks and predictions for the Yankees vs. Athletics on Thursday, June 29.
Yankees vs A's odds
Yankees vs A's predictions
Tyler Wade is a left-handed, bottom-of-the-order hitter who enters today with a 40% pinch-hit risk per THE BAT, and projects for just 3.09 plate appearances. He’s hitting .226 on the season and doesn’t see left-handed pitching often (three plate appearances this year vs. LHP). All of this adds up to a +EV bet on his Under 0.5 hits at +110.
The Oakland A’s didn’t even have a base runner yesterday and are the worst offense in baseball. That means fewer PAs for everyone, and if the New York Yankees bring in a lefty in Nick Ramirez or Wandy Peralta, it could be an abbreviated start for the Oakland infielder who sat yesterday.
Clarke Schmidt has been better than expected for New York as he eats innings thanks to the injuries the rotation has suffered. He can also walk guys with 23 over 77 innings, which favors the Under 0.5 hits.
Wade is a fringe MLB player who is striking out in 32% of his plate appearances this season, is a giant pinch-risk, and hits low in an order that can’t hit in general. There is a chance he sees two PAs today which would be great.
The Under 0.5 hits at +110 imply roughly 0.73 hits where THE BAT is projecting 0.62, giving bettors about a 15% edge between the implied and projected numbers.
My best bet: Tyler Wade Under 0.5 hits (+110)
Yankees vs A's same-game parlay
Wade Under 0.5 hits
Oakland ML
Under 8.5
Wade is an easy player to fade as he is a career .214 hitter who hits near the bottom of an awful offense and doesn't see left-handed pitching. He could potentially see two plate appearances today and be done.
The A's at +160 is a play on price as this is a long number in a game with two horrible offenses and a starting pitching matchup that is fairly neutral. It's 25 points longer than they've been in the entire series. The total is also a full run higher than it's closed over the three-game set, and both clubs rank dead last in average over the last 30 days.
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Yankees vs A's moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The series may be split at one game apiece, but the Oakland Athletics have failed to get a runner on base in 12 of the 17 innings and have scored just two runs. The embarrassing A’s sent 27 batters to the plate last night and got perfect-gamed on just 99 pitches.
After finally announcing a starter in Hogan Harris this morning, the home side opened as +160 dogs which is the longest they’ve been in the series so far.
Oddsmakers have made this series tighter than most assumed, showing you the state of this New York offense. The Yankees closed as -145 favorites last night and -130 in the opener where bettors moved the ML on the A’s by 10 points compared to the opening line.
Harris does have an xERA of 3.53 and a FIP of 4.19 which are great numbers, and he projects nearly similarly to Schmidt per THE BAT, with both pitchers giving up 2.53 earned runs over 15+ outs.
It’s never fun to ride the A’s who have been awful since the seven-game winning streak, but New York is coming off a high from a perfect game, is as short as it's been in the series despite a fairly neutral starting pitching matchup, and is leaving for St. Louis following the matinee. The Yanks are also 0-6 SU in Schmidt's last six starts and 4-12 SU on the season when he gets the ball.
This is also a game of two of the worst offenses over the last 30 days, as although the Aaron Judge-less Yankees hung an 11-pack last night, they’re hitting a league-worst .202 since May 31. Oakland isn’t much better at .209 (29th) so it’s hard to get excited for runs in a getaway afternoon game.
Both games of the series closed at 7.5 but opened or hit 8.0 at one point. Even in the opener, the F5 total moved from 4.5 to 3.5 which is significant in a five-inning market.
Oakland ran a lineup that had five players hitting .210 or less last night in the 11-0 defeat, while New York sported a winning lineup with a quintet of hitters sporting a .211 batting average or less. These lineups are hard on the eyes and could be even worse with some veterans likely getting the day off with a matinee setting.
This total opened at 8.5 — leaning to the Under — and I’ll gladly take the Under and wouldn’t be surprised if it closed at 8.0.
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Trend to know
The Under is 7-1-1 in Athletics’ last nine games when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. A's
Yankees vs A's game info
| Location: | Oakland Coliseum, Oakland, CA |
| Date: | Thursday, June 29, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 3:37 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MLB Network |
Starting pitchers
Clarke Schmidt (2-6, 4.32 ERA): Schmidt will be making his 17th start of the season and carries a 76:23 K/BB rate over 77 innings with 11 home runs. He’s eaten a lot of innings for the injured New York rotation averaging 87 pitches and 5.1 innings per start. Because of a lack of run support, the Yankees are 4-12 SU when he starts and 0-6 SU in his last six games. THE BAT is projecting 90 pitches, 15.9 outs, 5.32 strikeouts, and 2.53 earned runs.
Hogan Harris (2-1, 4.91 ERA): Well, let me let ya something, brother, Hogan Harris was announced as the starter around 10:00 a.m. this morning and will be making his third start of the season. The rookie will be pitching on four days of rest so he’s had time to take his vitamins. The righty is stretched out and carries a 27:13 K/BB ratio over 33 innings with three home runs. He’s a flyball pitcher with a .231 BABIP but has an easy matchup vs. a weak New York lineup, THE BAT projects 86 pitches, 15.5 outs, 4.32 strikeouts, and 2.53 earned runs.
