The New York Yankees will try to start their season with a second straight win as they visit the Houston Astros for the second game of a four-game series on Friday night.
The Yankees (1-0) fell behind 4-0 early on Thursday but rallied to win 5-4 behind big games from Juan Soto and Oswaldo Cabrera. The Astros (0-1) will look to bounce back behind Cristian Javier, who matches up against Carlos Rodon tonight.
Both starting pitchers will be looking to improve on disappointing 2023 campaigns, though one is better positioned for success today according to the MLB odds. We’ll break it down in our free MLB picks and predictions for Yankees vs. Astros on Friday, March 29.
Yankees vs Astros odds
Yankees vs Astros predictions
In 2022, Cristian Javier emerged as a key young cog in the Houston Astros rotation, going 11-9 with a stellar 2.54 ERA and 0.948 WHIP. Early in 2023, Javier looked to be repeating that success, going 6-1 with a 2.97 ERA through the end of May.
Javier seemed to hit the wall soon after, posting a 4.84 ERA and a 1.330 WHIP after the All-Star break. Javier seemed to struggle both with his velocity and mechanics, which may have been due to a heavier workload.
It’s worth noting that Javier did finish up the year with four solid starts, and looks to have worked on his mechanics – and fitness – in the offseason. There’s every indication that Javier should at least start the season strong again for Houston, though all eyes will be on the 23-year-old to see if he can keep it up for the entire season.
The New York Yankees are hoping they see more out of Carlos Rodon than he provided last year. Due to injuries, the former Chicago White Sox and San Francisco Giants standout had a shortened year last season, making just 14 starts after two straight All-Star campaigns. Even worse, those starts were simply awful with Rodon posting a 5.79 FIP, a 1.446 WHIP, the worst metrics of his career.
The Yankees want Rodon to once again be the top-of-the-rotation starter they thought they were getting when they signed him to a six-year, $162 million contract before the 2023 season. The problem is that outside of those last two seasons, Rodon hadn’t been that great for his career. From 2015-2020, he posted a 4.14 ERA over 536.2 innings of work, striking out just 8.8 batters – while walking 3.9 – per nine innings.
Assuming he can stay healthy, it’s likely that Rodon will give New York a lot more than they saw last year. But the Yankees still overpaid for a pitcher who spent most of his career as a league-average starter at best, even if he had two excellent years. At age 31 and with his secondary metrics seeming to revert to what they were earlier in his career, I’m skeptical he’ll ever have sustained excellence again.
With Javier traditionally good early in the season, Houston has the advantage today. I’m taking the Astros to get on the board with their first win.
My best bet: Astros moneyline (-120 at DraftKings)
Yankees vs Astros same-game parlay
Astros moneyline
Under 9.5
Cristian Javier 5+ strikeouts
I like the Astros to win this game, and I think we’re looking at a similar game in terms of scoring as we saw Thursday. That has me adding a hook to the total and taking the Under at 9.5 runs. In addition, I’ll throw in a bet on Javier to record 5+ strikeouts tonight to round out my same-game parlay, something he accomplished in five of his last six starts to end last season.
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Yankees vs Astros moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- Tonight’s moneyline opened with Houston as a -135 favorite. The consensus line has moved to Astros -120, with the Yankees available at +102.
- The total for tonight’s game opened at a flat nine runs. That remains the consensus Over/Under, with the Over a slight -115 favorite against the Under (-104).
- The Under went 81-71-9 during Yankees games last season, while the Over held an 83-74-4 edge when Houston played in 2023.
- These two teams pushed on the Over/Under at nine runs on Thursday.
Trend to know
The Yankees went 3-11 in Rodon’s 14 starts last season. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Astros
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Yankees vs Astros game info
| Location: | Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Friday, March 29, 2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Apple TV+ |
Starting pitchers
Carlos Rodon (X-X, X.XX ERA): Info
Cristian Javier (X-X, X.XX ERA): Info
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