We have the second matchup of this three-game AL Central intradivisional series with the Cleveland Guardians hosting the Chicago White Sox. This is the 15th meeting between these two teams this season with the Guardians winning nine of the first 14 matchups.
Will the Guardians take care of business once again, or can the White Sox grab a win as a road underdog? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for White Sox vs Guardians on Friday, August 19.
White Sox vs Guardians odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Guardians were unveiled as consensus favorites of –145 on Friday morning and have since been bet up to -180. The consensus opening total was unveiled at 7.5 and has stayed at that number.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
White Sox vs Guardians predictions
- Prediction: Guardians -1.5 (+125)
- Prediction: Under 7.5 (-109)
- Best bet: Bieber Under 2.5 earned runs (-140)
Picks made on 8/20/2022 at 9:45 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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White Sox vs Guardians game info
• Location: Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH
• Date: Saturday, August 20, 2022
• First pitch: 6:10 p.m. ET
• TV: NBCS-CHI, Bally Sports
White Sox vs Guardians betting preview
Starting pitchers
Johnny Cueto (5-5, 2.78 ERA): Cueto's had a stellar bounce-back year, and he has been particularly dialed-in recently. Over his last seven starts, Cueto is 3-1 with a 2.16 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. The 14-year veteran does an excellent job mixing his five-pitch arsenal, though he usually finds more success when the cutter is utilized less often.
Shane Bieber (8-6, 3.18 ERA): The former Cy Young award winner is having yet another outstanding season for the Guardians, and, like Cueto, enters this matchup in great form. Over his last six starts, Bieber is 5-1 with a 2.57 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. Bieber’s command has been tremendous over that stretch, issuing just four walks. Mostly relying on four pitches, Bieber sets up hitters with his fastballs before throwing his off-speed pitches, which both boast whiff percentages north of 39%.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Bieber has allowed two or fewer earned runs in 11 of his last 16 starts. Find more MLB betting trends for White Sox vs. Guardians
White Sox vs Guardians picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
This game is pivotal in the AL Central division race, and we will be going with the home team. Cleveland enters this game in great form, winning 10 of their last 13 games (77%).
I expect this trend to continue in this matchup with right-hander Shane Bieber slated to take the mound for the Guardians. This season, Bieber is 8-6 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.10 WHIP.
We should not expect regression from Bieber, who boasts a .288 xwOBA, .242 xBA, and .373 xSLG. On top of that, Bieber enters this game in great form (see starting pitcher section).
Additionally, Chicago is a team that Bieber has dominated since entering the league in 2018. Over his 15 career starts against the White Sox, Bieber is 7-3 with a 2.75 ERA and 0.95 WHIP.
Through 177 career plate appearances against the Guardians’ right-hander, this current White Sox lineup possesses a mere .224 xBA, .381 xSLG, and .278 xwOBA. Following Bieber is one of the best bullpens in baseball.
Since July 1, Cleveland’s relief pitching ranks seventh in the league in ERA, 11th in BA, 10th in SLG, fourth in wOBA, and second in FIP. While Cleveland did utilize two of their best relievers last night (Trevor Stephan and Emmanual Clase), they are not afraid to use both in back-to-back games.
In fact, the set-up man and closer both appeared in back-to-back games in each of the last two series. The White Sox have also been in good form, which is why the betting line is so favorable for Cleveland despite Bieber taking the mound.
However, Chicago will struggle to score runs against McKenzie and this strong bullpen. Cleveland has had a lot of success against the White Sox this season, a trend I expect to continue in this matchup.
Prediction: Guardians -1.5 (+125 at DraftKings)
Over/Under analysis
While the Guardians pitching staff should shut the White Sox down, their lineup may struggle to generate runs against dialed-in right-hander Johnny Cueto. Through eight career starts against the Guardians, Cueto is 4-0 with a 2.48 ERA and 1.11 WHIP.
Across 36 career plate appearances against Chicago’s right-hander, this current Cleveland roster possesses a .357 xSLG and .317 xwOBA. Following Cueto is one of the league’s better bullpens.
Chicago’s relief pitching ranks 12th in the league in SLG, ninth in FIP, and ninth in hard hit percentage since July 1. Additionally, a couple of Chicago's best relievers should be available, as neither Kendall Graveman nor Liam Hendriks pitched last night,
The Under has been a decent bet for Cleveland recently, going 7-3 over its last 10 games.
Prediction: Under 7.5 (-109 at Unibet)
Best bet
With all that being said, we can find better bets than the Guardians moneyline because Cueto has been outstanding and I could see him shutting down Cleveland. I am also not completely sold on the Under due to the fact that both offenses are Top 10 in the league against right-handed pitching since July 1.
The one play I am most confident in is for Shane Bieber to keep it rolling. Allowing two or fewer earned runs in 11 of his last 16 starts, we should expect Bieber to go Under his run prop once again.
We’re getting a good line on this prop because of how good Chicago’s offense has been. However, Bieber has allowed two or fewer earned runs in six of his last eight starts against the White Sox.
Shane Bieber prop pick: Under 2.5 earned runs (-140)
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