Blue Jays vs Yankees Picks and Predictions: Cole on Mound Doesn't Guarantee Yanks Win

The Yankees bats are still very fadeable, and with Gerrit Cole on the mound, the Bombers are giving the Blue Jays an enticing price we can't say no to. See why our MLB betting picks are siding with Toronto in this AL East clash.

Josh Inglis - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Josh Inglis • Betting Analyst
Aug 20, 2022 • 10:28 ET • 4 min read
Mitch White Toronto Blue Jays MLB picks
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Coming off last night’s 4-0 shutout loss at home to the Toronto Blue Jays, do the New York Yankees' bats have any answer today on a quick turnaround vs. Toronto starter Mitch White, or are bettors getting a good price here thanks to the books overvaluing New York starter Gerrit Cole?

Find out which way I’m leaning with our MLB picks and predictions for this Saturday, August 20 matinee between the Blue Jays and Yankees.

Blue Jays vs Yankees odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Yankees opened as -195 home favorites last night but have fallen to -180 as of this morning. New York closed at -105 yesterday and the 75-point moneyline swing has everything to do with the starting pitching matchup. The total opened at 7.5 and is starting to trend to the Over with plenty of books hitting 8 before 10 am ET.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Blue Jays vs Yankees predictions

Picks made on 8/20/2022 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Blue Jays vs Yankees game info

Location: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
Date: Saturday, August 20, 2022
First pitch: 1:05 p.m. ET
TV: Sportsnet, YES

Blue Jays vs Yankees betting preview

Starting pitchers

Mitch White (0-1, 3.86 ERA): White will be making his third start for the Jays after coming over from the Dodgers at the deadline and has cemented his spot in the rotation thanks to Yusei Kikuchi’s poor performance. White hasn’t recorded more than 14 outs as a starter for the Jays and is likely to see around 80-85 pitches today as the No. 5 starter. White is a traditional fastball/slider/curveball pitcher who sits in the low-to-mid 90s with his fastball and opponents, are hitting just over .200 versus his breaking pitches.

Gerrit Cole (9-5, 3.30 ERA): Cole will attempt to instill some confidence back into the New York locker room this afternoon. The New York right-hander likely won’t be getting any first-place Cy Young votes this season as blow-up games have been a major issue in 2022. He has allowed just one run over his last two starts (13 innings) but that comes on the heels of a 4.03 ERA in July across six starts. His splits favor him at home today and he is 5-1 vs. the Jays over 10 career starts with a 3.57 ERA.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Yankees are 1-6 SU in their last seven home games vs. a team with a winning record. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Yankees

Blue Jays vs Yankees picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

Today will be the third game of a four-game set between the two AL East rivals with the Jays taking the first two games of the series as the New York bats continue to be dormant (more on that in a bit).

In the opener, the Yankees were -140 favorites and then swung to -105 dogs yesterday. Neither pitching matchup was overly favorable and those prices tell me that the books favor the Jays in a neutral matchup. Now with Gerrit Cole taking the ball and facing Mitch White, the books have swung this line roughly 90 points in favor of the home side. But with how awful the New York lineup is, can bettors really lay the juice here?

Cole is certainly the better pitcher of the day but I’m siding with the early market movement here and saying this opening price was too short for the Yankees at -190. 

Cole has pitched to a true 3.30 ERA this season and his solid contact percentage is up over double from a year ago. He’ll have to throw up donuts to get the win today with how the New York offense is rolling. In Cole’s last two starts, he’s allowed just a single run and nine hits over 13 innings, and the Yankees lost both games, scoring zero runs for the ace.

On the season, the Yankees are scoring 5.06 runs per game (second) but since Giancarlo Stanton has been sidelined, they’re scoring just 3.90 runs per game, hitting .216, and are creating runs well below a league-average rate. 

Matt Carpenter was injured a few weeks later on August 8 and since then, the Yankees have been even worse at the dish with a .188 batting average and scoring 2.54 runs per game over the 11-game stretch. New York has scored more than three runs just once over its last 10 games and the George Costanza memes are everywhere on Twitter. 

Getting this reborn Toronto offense at +160 is appetizing. George Springer is more probable than doubtful after getting a day off yesterday. The move may have been a way to get the oft-injured outfielder into today's game without having to play two games in 26 hours. He's been a catalyst since returning to the lineup and went 5-for-5 in the opening game of the series. 

The Jays’ lineup is so talented that they can have an AL batting champ hitting in the ninth spot in Whit Merrifield while the Yankees’ bottom three batters consist of Oswaldo Cabrera, catcher Kyle Higashioka, and Estevan Florial. The absences of Stanton, Carpenter and Harrison Bader are sufficient, DJ LeMahieu isn’t back to 100 percent and Aaron Hicks losing his spot in center field exemplifies the struggles this lineup is going through. 

New York has won just four games over their 17 games this month, this offense can’t score without a home run, and even with Cole pitching well of late, the Yanks have given him zero support.    

PredictionBlue Jays moneyline (+160 at bet365)

Over/Under analysis

An afternoon game with Gerrit Cole and an ice-cold New York offense? Sign me up for the Under 8.

Cole has had issues with some bad starts but knows he needs to bring the A-game today as he's seen zero runs of support over his last two turns. He boasts a 2.94 ERA at Yankee Stadium this season and could see a weaker Blue Jays lineup with the quick turnaround from last night. Cole is still a Top-5 pitcher in the American League and has seen a total shorter than 8 in three straight starts. His groundball rate is also the best it’s been since coming over to the American League in 2018.

White will likely go through the Yankees' batters two times before handing things over to a bullpen that might not have Jordan Romano but is still strong enough vs. a weak New York lineup that is on fade notice until it proves me wrong.

Afternoon temperatures of 91 degrees are a little concerning and Under bettors might want to wait closer to game time to get the best price but many books are moving off the 7.5 to the 8. This weather is priced into the total is likely the reason it moved from 7.5 to 8.

With Cole keeping the better offense in check while the Yankee’s bats have shown no signs of life, I’m hitting the total for the first time in this series and playing the Under 8 at -115.

PredictionUnder 8 (-115 at BetMGM

Best bet

Mitch White won’t have a long leash today, as interim manager John Schnieder has protected the back end of his rotation. In his two starts with Scheider and the Jays, White has seen just 85 and 82 total pitches in each start.

THE BAT has him projected for 76 pitches and 14.5 outs, but not because he can’t navigate this New York lineup, it's mainly due to the setting. If White sees just 18 batters today and doesn’t have to face the only strength in this New York order, Aaron Judge, a third time, that will be a huge advantage for his earned run markets.

This is a New York lineup that is so top-heavy, if the bottom of the order is tasked with knocking runs in, the advantage will lie with White who hasn’t allowed a home run in five of his last six starts.

If I’m looking to fade the Yankees’ offense, White’s Under 2.5 earned runs at +120 is the best landing spot. He already has a short leash and might not see the order a third time through even with good results. 

Mitch White prop pick: Under 2.5 earned runs (+120 at bet365)

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