The first game of this interleague series gets underway on Monday with the San Diego Padres hosting the Minnesota Twins at PETCO Park. MLB odds have the Padres as moderate -152 betting favorites and our Twins vs. Padres predictions expect them to handle business.
Find out why in our MLB picks below.
Twins vs Padres prediction
My best bet
Padres -1.5 (+150 at DraftKings)
My analysis
The San Diego Padres hand the ball to right-hander Michael King, and considering he's 10-6 through 24 appearances on the mound with a commanding 3.19 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, we're backing him tonight.
His underlying metrics are equally strong as the right-hander ranks in the Top 25% of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate. Entering this contest in particularly dominant form, he's surrendered two or fewer runs in six of his past seven outings.
He's 5-1 over that stretch with a 1.94 ERA. This success will likely continue against the Minnesota Twins, a team King boasts a 2.45 ERA against through three career meetings.
Meanwhile, Minnesota hands the ball to right-handed rookie Zebby Matthews. He’s only pitched five innings in his career thus far, but he's produced a fade-worthy 5.83 xERA and .292 xBA.
The Padres boast the bullpen advantage as their relief staff outranks the Twins’ in both FIP and xFIP. At the same time, San Diego outranks Minnesota in hits per game, BA, OBP, and stolen bases.
Twins vs Padres same-game parlay (SGP)
Padres -1.5
Michael King Over 6.5 strikeouts
Jake Cronenworth Over 0.5 hits
If we're backing the Padres to win by multiple runs, then a highly correlated outcome would be for King to put together another strong outing. We can back him in the prop market, considering he ranks in the Top[ 25% of baseball in chase, whiff, and strikeout rates.
He's recorded at least seven punchouts in his past three starts. We'll also need the bats to come alive for San Diego, which brings us to Jake Cronenworth, who's recorded at least one hit in eight of his past nine games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Twins vs Padres odds
Twins vs Padres live odds
Twins vs Padres opening odds
- Run line: Minnesota +1.5 (-182) | San Diego -1.5 (+150)
- Moneyline: Minnesota +128 | San Diego -152
- Over/Under: Over 7 | Under 7
Twins vs Padres spread and Over/Under analysis
- San Diego opened as a -152 favorite and remains at that price at the time of writing.
- I project this line to further widen, due to all the aforementioned variables.
- The total opened at 7 and also remains at that number.
- This total won’t drop to 6.5, so it would be better to strike sooner rather than later if you like the Over.
Twins vs Padres trend
The Padres have won by 2+ runs in four of Michael King’s past seven starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs Padres.
Twins vs Padres game info
| Location: | PETCO Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date: | Monday, 8-19-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
| Twins starting pitcher: | Zebby Matthews (1-0, 3.60 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher: | Michael King (10-6, 3.19 ERA) |
Twins vs Padres latest injuries
Twins vs Padres weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
