The Kansas City Royals look to sweep away the Detroit Tigers this afternoon at Kauffman Stadium. KC has outscored Detroit 18-6 through the first two lopsided wins and will seek its sixth consecutive win.
My Tigers vs. Royals predictions are staying away from the moneyline, opting instead to back the Under on the total with aces Tarik Skubal and Cole Ragans facing off.
Will it be enough to avoid the brooms? Read below for my free MLB picks for Wednesday, May 22.
Tigers vs Royals prediction
My best bet
Under 7.5 (-125 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
Tarik Skubal has been a standout in the Detroit Tigers rotation.
The lefty is undefeated through nine starts (6-0) with a 1.80 ERA that ranks sixth in MLB among qualified starters plus a sharp 0.78 WHIP (2nd) and 66 strikeouts (T8).
Not surprisingly, the Tigers have a little pep in their step offensively when Skubal toes the rubber with their 4.15 runs per game jumping to 7.67 in Skubal’s wins. He hasn’t needed all those runs, either. In eight of nine starts this season, he’s allowed two earned runs or fewer, limiting opponents to zero runs four times.
The Kansas City Royals have seen him deal up close, as Skubal went to work in an April 28 matchup, throwing seven innings of four-hit ball, surrendering a lone run while fanning six and walking just one. KC ranks fifth in runs scored, and is in the Top 10 in batting average, slugging percentage, and OPS.
The Royals are an absolute nightmare with runners in scoring position, delivering at a .305 clip, the only team in major league baseball hitting over .300 in that scenario. And yet, Skubal has yet to be truly solved.
Ace lefty Cole Ragans takes the bump for the Royals. He’s picked up three wins in his last five starts and was stellar against Oakland in his most recent outing, going a season-best seven innings, surrendering just two hits and no earned runs while fanning seven.
The trend lately has been to take the Over, which is 4-1-1 in the last six head-to-head matchups, but with Skubal dealing for Detroit, and the Tigers hitting just .221 against lefties and putting up just 3.8 runs per nine innings, this has the makings of a low-scoring finale.
Tigers vs Royals same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 7
Salvador Perez 2+ total bases
Tarik Skubal Under 6.5 strikeouts
While he went 0-for-3 with a walk in their lone matchup this season, catcher Salvador Perez is about the only Royals player who has held his own against Skubal.
Perez is 8-for-21 vs. Skubal, a crisp .381 clip. Of those eight hits, he’s picked up a pair of doubles and taken Skubal yard three times. With plus odds to pick up two or more bags, it’s worth rolling into this SGP.
Let’s stick with Skubal to close out this ticket, and his line of 6.5 strikeouts.
In five of his nine starts this year, Skubal has gone Under this line, including against these same Royals. Kansas City also doesn’t strike out a lot, punching out less frequently than every team in the majors other than the Astros.
In his six appearances at Kauffman since 2020, Skubal hasn’t been a high-strikeout guy, registering six or fewer Ks four times.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Ontario sports bettors: Play your way with PROLINE+
Ontario-owned and operated, PROLINE+ has a robust market offering at its disposal and reinvests 100% of its profits back into the province — join today!
Tigers vs Royals odds
Tigers vs Royals live odds
Tigers vs Royals opening odds
- Run line: Detroit -1.5 (+135) | Kansas City +1.5 (-160)
- Moneyline: Detroit -120 | Kansas City +100
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-115) | Under 7.5 (-105)
Tigers vs Royals spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Tigers are 12-11 this season as moneyline favorites.
- Kansas City is 7-3 in its last 10 games.
- Each of Detroit’s last seven road games has cashed the Over.
- The Over has hit in three straight Royals’ games
Tigers vs Royals trend
The Royals have won 14 straight home games against teams with a losing record. Find more MLB betting trends for Tigers vs. Royals
Tigers vs Royals game info
| Location: | Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO |
| Date: | Wednesday, 5-22-2024 |
| First pitch: | 2:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSDET, BSKC |
| Tigers starting pitcher: | Tarik Skubal (6-0, 1.80 ERA) |
| Royals starting pitcher: | Cole Ragans (3-3, 3.70 ERA) |
Tigers vs Royals latest injuries
Tigers vs Royals weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
