The Detroit Tigers' extra innings Game 1 victory over the Seattle Mariners sets up a Game 2 ALDS pitching duel between Tarik Skubal and Luis Castillo.
My MLB player props and Tigers vs. Mariners predictions expect a strong night for Castillo, and possibly a less-than-stellar outing for Skubal.
Read on for my MLB picks for Sunday, October 5.
Tigers vs Mariners Game 2 props
| Player |  |
|---|---|
 Luis Castillo Over 15.5 outs |
-135 |
 Tarik Skubal Under 18.5 outs |
-120 |
| Tarik Skubal Under 8.5 strikeouts |
+100 |
Tigers vs Mariners player prop picks
Prop #1: Luis Castillo Over 15.5 outs
Last night's extra-innings wonder fest taxed both bullpens. Seattle Mariners manager Dan Wilson typically gives Luis Castillo a longer leash, and I expect Castillo to pitch past his total outs prop.
Castillo is fresh because he hasn’t pitched since September 24. He’s pitched six or more innings in his last four starts, and he’s served up a .248/.289/.355/.644 slash line against these Detroit Tigers across 121 career at-bats.
Detroit’s .712 OPS and 24.5% strikeout rate against righties during the regular season, paired with Castillo’s career success against the light-hitting Tigers, makes the veteran Mariners righty a good bet to clear his pitcher outs prop.
Prop #2: Tarik Skubal Under 18.5 outs
Detroit Tigers manager A.J. Hinch also has a taxed bullpen, but he’ll send typically dependable ace lefty Tarik Skubal to the bump.
Skubal pitched 7 ⅔ innings against Cleveland, but that was the first time he pitched past the sixth frame in three previous starts.
More concerning, Seattle rocked Skubal for seven earned runs on a pair of bombs and 10 hits across two starts this season (10 ½ innings), and I’m thinking the Mariners chase Skubal early.
The Tigers have lost three of Skubal’s previous four starts. He’s not pitched well against the Mariners, and he’s allowed an uncharacteristically high nine earned runs across his last 30 innings pitched.
With a potential Game 5 start looming, I’m betting Seattle gets to Skubal early, and he fails to record 19 or more outs tonight.
Prop #3: Tarik Skubal Under 8.5 strikeouts
Skubal is coming off a 14-strikeout gem against the Guardians, but I’m betting he doesn’t punch out nine or more Mariners tonight.
Skubal rolled through most teams this season, but he allowed seven earned runs across 10 ⅔ frames, and he averaged 6 ½ punchouts in his two starts this season against Seattle.
While the Mariners boast a 25% strikeout rate against lefties, Seattle succeeded against Skubal by being aggressive early in the count, and that aggressiveness should cost Skubal a few strikeouts in Game 2.
Skubal has struck out nine or more only twice across his last six starts, and I’m betting he doesn’t punch out nine or more Mariners tonight.
How to watch Tigers vs Mariners and Game 2 info
| Location | T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA |
| Date | Sunday, October 5, 2025 |
| First pitch | 8:03 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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