A busy slate across the majors tonight means lots of opportunity for long balls, and I have some great plays in mind.
My MLB player props and home run analysis will highlight Ronald Acuna Jr. and Jonathan Aranda.
Read more in my MLB picks for Tuesday, June 2.
Best MLB home run props today
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Ronald Acuna Jr.
Jonathan Aranda
Home run pick: Ronald Acuna Jr. (+424)
Ronald Acuña Jr. is one of the hottest hitters in baseball right now, launching five home runs over the last week while posting a ridiculous .714 ISO and 1.048 slugging percentage. The Atlanta Braves superstar has also elevated the baseball consistently, putting 50% of his contact in the air over the last two weeks.
That trend could continue against Kevin Gausman, who has allowed 58.7% of contact against him to come in the air this season. While the right-hander has pitched well overall, elevated contact is always dangerous against a hitter with Acuña's combination of bat speed and power.
The matchup becomes even more intriguing when looking at the pitch mix. Four of Acuña's seven home runs have come against fastballs this season, while four of the six homers Gausman has surrendered have been against his four-seamer.
I'd play this pick to +350.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: BravesVision, Sportsnet
Home run pick: Jonathan Aranda (+474)
Jonathan Aranda is squaring up everything at the moment. Over his last six games, he owns an astonishing 80% hard-hit rate and 33.3% barrel rate.
The Mexican-born first baseman has also posted a 50% HR/FB rate during that span, highlighting just how dangerous he's been when getting the ball in the air.
Jack Flaherty takes the hill for the Detroit Tigers, and the veteran right-hander has shown some alarming home-run indicators lately. Over the last month, he's allowed a 20.9 average launch angle and a 48.6% hard-hit rate.
Flaherty has also been far more vulnerable away from home, surrendering 2.42 home runs per nine innings on the road while allowing a 50.7% fly ball rate.
That's an intriguing matchup for Aranda, whose recent surge has been fueled by elite quality of contact. If Flaherty continues allowing elevated contact, Aranda has a strong opportunity to take advantage.
I'll play this pick to +400.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Rays.TV, Detroit SportsNet
- HR picks: 7-48, -13.52 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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