A busy slate across the majors tonight means lots of opportunity for long balls, and I have three great plays in mind.
My MLB player props home run analysis will highlight Ronald Acuna Jr., Yordan Alvarez, and Jonathan Aranda.
Read more in my MLB picks for Tuesday, June 2.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Ronald Acuna Jr. |
+424 |
 Yordan Alvarez |
+271 |
 Jonathan Aranda |
+474 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +11058 |
Home run pick: Ronald Acuna Jr. (+424)
Ronald Acuña Jr. is one of the hottest hitters in baseball right now, launching five home runs over the last week while posting a ridiculous .714 ISO and 1.048 slugging percentage. The Atlanta Braves superstar has also elevated the baseball consistently, putting 50% of his contact in the air over the last two weeks.
That trend could continue against Kevin Gausman, who has allowed 58.7% of contact against him to come in the air this season. While the right-hander has pitched well overall, elevated contact is always dangerous against a hitter with Acuña's combination of bat speed and power.
The matchup becomes even more intriguing when looking at the pitch mix. Four of Acuña's seven home runs have come against fastballs this season, while four of the six homers Gausman has surrendered have been against his four-seamer.
I'd play this pick to +350.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: BravesVision, Sportsnet
Home run pick: Yordan Alvarez (+271)
Yordan Alvarez's underlying numbers are jumping off the page right now. Over the last two weeks alone, he owns a .410 ISO, 57.7% hard-hit rate, and 34.6% barrel rate.
He's consistently squaring up the baseball and getting it in the air, evidenced by a 26.2 average launch angle. Unsurprisingly, Alvarez has launched five home runs during that span.
Bubba Chandler takes the hill for the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight. While the rookie has pitched well overall, left-handed hitters have given him trouble. Chandler owns a 5.71 FIP against lefties and has allowed a 12.8% HR/FB rate in those matchups.
That's a dangerous combination against a hitter like Alvarez, whose recent profile has been built on elite power and lift. If Chandler continues to struggle against left-handed bats, Alvarez has a favorable path to leaving the yard.
I'd play this pick to +200.
- Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Space City Home Network, SportsNet Pittsburgh
Home run pick: Jonathan Aranda (+474)
Jonathan Aranda is squaring up everything at the moment. Over his last six games, he owns an astonishing 80% hard-hit rate and 33.3% barrel rate.
The Mexican-born first baseman has also posted a 50% HR/FB rate during that span, highlighting just how dangerous he's been when getting the ball in the air.
Jack Flaherty takes the hill for the Detroit Tigers, and the veteran right-hander has shown some alarming home-run indicators lately. Over the last month, he's allowed a 20.9 average launch angle and a 48.6% hard-hit rate.
Flaherty has also been far more vulnerable away from home, surrendering 2.42 home runs per nine innings on the road while allowing a 50.7% fly ball rate.
That's an intriguing matchup for Aranda, whose recent surge has been fueled by elite quality of contact. If Flaherty continues allowing elevated contact, Aranda has a strong opportunity to take advantage.
I'll play this pick to +400.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Rays.TV, Detroit SportsNet
- HR picks: 7-48, -13.52 units
Today’s HR parlay
| Ronald Acuna Jr. |
Bet Now +11058 |
| Yordan Alvarez |
|
| Jonathan Aranda |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
