With all 30 teams on the schedule today, that's a big crop of pitchers to dig into for MLB player props and punchouts, and it's been a great run in August to date.
Jackson Jobe has a growing leash that might not be priced into his short strikeout prop, Tyler Glasnow is coming back from a lengthy injury with plenty of paths for his plus-money Under, and Aaron Nola is still a pitcher to fade every five days.
These are my favorite pitcher and strikeout props for Tuesday, Aug. 25.
Best MLB strikeout props and starting pitcher picks today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Jackson Jobe |
Over 3.5 strikeouts | +104 |
 Tyler Glasnow |
Under 5.5 strikeouts | +124 |
 Aaron Nola |
Under 17.5 outs | +100 |
Strikeout prop: Jackson Jobe Over 3.5 strikeouts (+104)
Jackson Jobe is getting a longer leash after three starts, going from 71 to 74 to 86 pitches in that stretch. He could push 90 pitches today, and his 15.5-out market is juiced to the Over, suggesting more than 15 outs is expected at home against the Rays.
He isn't a K/inning guy, but getting to four punchouts at plus money isn't a big ask. He projects for 87 pitches and 3.97 strikeouts today, putting the fair price around -135. He's hit this Over in two of his three starts and is backed by a bullpen with little trust and the fifth-worst FIP in August, which only helps his leash.
The projections already like the Over, and that's based on a pitch count that still has room to climb today. His Over is making the MLB picks page.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Detroit SportsNet, Rays.TV
Strikeout prop: Tyler Glasnow Under 5.5 strikeouts (+124)
This is a big price for a pitcher who hasn't pitched in the MLB in four months on a roster that is handling its pitching staff very carefully with the postseason in sight.
Tyler Glasnow is coming off the IL with a back injury that has sidelined him since early May. He built up to 77 pitches in his rehab outings, but the Dodgers have no reason to push the right-hander today, making the projected 87-pitch workload feel aggressive. The Under is already showing value at this number.
Covers' MLB prop projections have Glasnow at 5.51 Ks on 87 pitches, which feels high to me. The Dodgers were off yesterday, so the bullpen is fully rested and ready to pick up the slack. The fair price based on those projections is around -115.
Glasnow is an elite pitcher, but this is the spot to fade him. I see a shorter leash and fewer outs than the market is pricing in.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: BravesVision, SportsNet LA
Pitcher outs prop: Aaron Nola Under 17.5 outs (+100)
Aaron Nola hasn't pitched terribly of late, but this is still a pitcher on the downswing of his career who remains one of the hardest-hit pitchers in baseball. Only nine other MLB starters have a worse BlastContact% than the Philadelphia right-hander.
Nola is also coming off a 100-pitch outing, something he hadn't done in 20 straight starts. That extra workload could negatively affect his efficiency today, and it's not like he has been regularly getting to 18 outs. He's 4-11 O/U on this number across his last 15 starts.
It's a road start against a Mariners team that finally got Cal Raleigh going, while the Phillies have all three of their left-handed reliever options available today. Fading Nola is a no-doubt look.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Mariners.TV, NBCSP
- Prop picks: 21-17, +6.09 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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