It's been a solid 5-1 SU run this week, and my MLB player props are once again trying to smash this short-slate Thursday.
These are my favorite pitcher and strikeout props for Thursday, Aug. 20.
Best MLB strikeout props and starting pitcher picks today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Gerrit Cole |
Under 6.5 strikeouts | +102 |
 Kyle Bradish |
Under 5.5 strikeouts | +117 |
 Robert Gasser |
Under 17.5 outs | -110 |
Strikeout prop: Gerrit Cole Under 6.5 strikeouts (+102)
Gerrit Cole has pitched more than six innings just twice over his 15 starts, as the Yankees are still a little cautious with him and will likely pull him after 18 outs even if he’s sitting under 90 pitches. He’s also more of a K-per-inning pitcher, and is 2-6 O/U on this total on the road this year.
Getting six or fewer Ks on 18 outs at plus money was my first pitcher bet of the day.
THE BAT is projecting 6.0 strikeouts on 88 pitches, which still leaves plenty of room if he does get to 95 pitches, something he’s done in just 40% of his last 10 starts. The fair price on this prop with those projections is -150, making this one of the best +EV pitcher props on the board today.
There’s also some rain risk, which can only help the Under.
- Time: 6:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MASN, YES
Strikeout prop: Kyle Bradish Under 5.5 strikeouts (+117)
The last time Kyle Bradish topped this number was June 22. Since then, he's gone eight straight starts with five or fewer Ks, totaling just 30 punchouts over 44 innings.
He is not a K-per-inning pitcher this year and had failed to reach 40 innings in back-to-back seasons heading into 2026 because of injuries. He returned from Tommy John surgery in 2025 and has already thrown 133 innings this year, so the workload is getting heavy and could be scaled back.
Bradish hasn’t gone beyond six innings in five straight starts, and the possible rain in Baltimore isn’t going to help. He had a rain-shortened start earlier this month in which he threw just three innings and didn’t come back out.
The Yankees are a good K matchup, but that’s already priced in. I want this plus-money Under on a pitcher who hasn’t touched this total in eight straight starts and could be seeing his workload scaled back.
I’d play this to even money and have this at better than a coin-flip.
- Time: 6:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MASN, YES
Pitcher out prop: Robert Gasser Under 17.5 outs (-110)
Robert Gasser is coming off a career-high 102 pitches last game, where he went beyond 18 outs for just the second time in 14 games. He’s already at 100 innings this year after throwing just 80 combined innings over the previous two seasons.
The leash could be shorter and the efficiency could be down — a perfect setup for an Under 17.5 outs at a great price.
In his five games before that 102-pitch outing five days ago, Gasser threw 94, 76, 77, 86, and 58 pitches. The Brewers burned some arms last night, but they still have their top four high-leverage arms available, and their top three big arms haven’t been used since Sunday.
Gasser is 4-10 O/U on this total this season and struggles against right-handed bats, with a handful of them in the Seattle lineup capable of making a difference today.
The projection is 84 pitches and 15.56 outs, making this a five-star prop at this total.
- Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Brewers.TV, Mariners.TV
- Prop picks: 19-16, +4.92 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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