The Tuesday card went 2-1 SU, and it’s a getaway Wednesday with only four games on the slate tomorrow. It’s also the second time through the rotation since the All-Star break, so there are more angles to look at.
These are my three favorite pitcher props and MLB picks for Wednesday, July 23.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for July 23
Fried o17.5 outs (-125)
Judge 2+ BBs (+350)
Rea u16.5 outs (-110)
Yankees vs. Jays
The angle: Leashes don't get much longer and the Yankees have not gotten more than 15 outs from a starter in this series
The move: Max Fried Over 17.5 outs recorded (-125 at bet365)
The New York starter is in a big spot to win the series vs. the Jays, who are +120 home dogs despite being one of the best home teams in baseball.
Max Fried might have one of the longest leashes in baseball, having gone 100-plus pitches in 50% of last 16 starts. His latest start was cut short because of a blister, but the break will have given the pitcher ample time to recover and get right.
The Jays touched him three starts ago for two home runs and four total runs, but the righty still went 18 outs on 99 pitches. He’s gone Over this number in 14 of 20 starts.
Yankees vs. Jays
The angle: Judge at this price is better than Bassitt 3+ walks at +170
The move: Aaron Judge 2+ walks (+350 at DraftKings)
I’m very aware that this is not a pitcher prop, but I would rather have this at +350 than Chris Bassitt Over 2.5 walks allowed at +170.
Aaron Judge took two walks the last time he faced Bassitt in Toronto, and the Yankee three-hitter was intentionally walked yesterday and in the series opener on Monday. In a critical final game of the series, John Schneider could be even more cautious with Judge.
The two guys hitting in front of Judge have also done well vs. Bassitt and can get to second base today while leaving first base open. Trent Grisham has a 1.136 OPS vs. Bassitt over 13 at-bats and Cody Bellinger has an .857 OPS across 12 ABs.
Royals vs. Cubs
The angle: The Wrigley wind is swirling and the bullpen needs some work.
The move: Colin Rea Under 16.5 outs recorded (-110 at BetMGM)
Colin Rea has a projected pitch count of 86 pitches and is averaging 88 pitches per start across his last 10 while going Under on this number in 60% of those starts.
The Wrigley wind will not help him today, as it's blowing 14 mph out to left field. It’s around 90 degrees with good humidity, making for some solid hitting conditions, and it's the reason the total is in double-digits.
Rea has pitched well but does not get past 90 pitches often — doing so in just three of his last 10.
Another big reason Rea could be done after 15 outs is the Cubs’ bullpen. Chicago needed just 19 pitches from two relievers yesterday after Matthew Boyd’s gem, and eight arms are available and likely need some work.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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