It’s been a 4-1 SU start on the week, and I’m going to continue targeting pitchers coming off big workloads today on a very busy Thursday with a pair of doubleheaders.
These are my three favorite pitcher props and MLB picks for Thursday, June 19.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for June 19
Gordon u4.5 Ks (-102)
Cabrera u15.5 outs & 2+ walks allowed (+120)
Bergert u3.5 Ks (-115)
Today's SP best bets
Astros vs. Athletics
The angle: Gordon is coming off a his biggest workload of the season.
The move: Colton Gordon Under 4.5 strikeouts (-102 at FanDuel)
In his sixth start of the season, Colton Gordon tossed 102 pitches after throwing just 75 pitches in each of his previous two starts. It’s a massive jump in workload and one I hope hurts his efficiency today on the road vs. the Athletics with good-hitting weather.
Sacramento is one of the best hitter settings in baseball, and there is a 13-mph wind blowing out to center field. Getting an early hook is in the range of outcomes today for a pitcher who has gone 18 outs just once this year and needed to smash his average in pitches to do it.
Gordon was a K/inning guy in Triple-A so his K/inning mark with the big club could see some regression. He also owns a 35% groundball rate, which is poor. If his o2.5 earned runs were 15 points longer, I’d play that too at -125 or better. Five innings and four strikeouts is where I have this one.
Phillies vs. Marlins
The angle: Sixty-five pitches is in Cabrera's range of outcomes today.
The move: Edward Cabrera Under 15.5 outs + 2+ walks allowed (+120 at DraftKings)
Two starts ago, Edward Cabrera lasted just 63 pitches. He followed that up with a 64-pitch outing six days ago, but he may have come out earlier than expected after rolling his ankle. He did pitch after the incident but only lasted three more outs.
There is a real possibility that he has a severe leash on him. He is very inefficient, which can drive up his pitch count as he allows more than a hit per inning and has walked a batter every other inning since 2023.
His out total is 15.5 but at -165 in most places. He is 7-4 to the Under on this number this year with a full leash and now the range of outcomes includes 65 pitches. I’m adding his 2+ walks allowed to the Under 15.5 outs, which works out to +120 at DraftKings.
Padres vs. Dodgers
The angle: Bergert and his sub-.200 BABIP are in for one tonight at Dodger Stadium.
The move: Ryan Bergert Under 3.5 strikeouts (-115 at bet365)
Ryan Bergert will make his fourth start of the year. Since transitioning out of the bullpen due to injuries, he has thrown 86 and 83 pitches in his first two starts before 90 in his most recent. He struck out just six batters in those first two starts before clustering eight punchouts in his latest one.
He is not a K/inning pitcher, even when he was in the bullpen. Facing the Dodgers in L.A. with great hitting conditions, which include 10-mph winds blowing out, isn’t going to help his cause tonight.
THE BAT is projecting just 76 pitches today and his Under 3.5 Ks at -115 is a good look even at that short number. He could get tagged or it could look like his first start where he goes five innings with two strikeouts.
He owns a .188 BABIP that isn’t going to be maintained and his K% is floating around one per every five batters faced, which might be high because of the bullpen numbers. He walks batters and gives up hits but his earned run prop is 3.5, and I’m not sure about his leash to hit that Over.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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