Another 1-2 SU day here with the two losses — both pitcher Over Ks — falling by the hook. It’s a smaller nine-game slate today with a doubleheader in Colorado. Let’s find what’s not priced in.
These are my favorite MLB player props for starting pitchers on Thursday, May 8.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for May 8
Freeland o1.5 walks allowed (+155)
Mize o1.5 walks allowed (+125)
Pfaadt u1.5 walks allowed (+130)
Today's SP best bets
Tigers vs. Rockies
The angle: The doubleheader should push these starters a little longer
The move: Kyle Freeland Over 1.5 walks allowed (+155 at bet365)
Let’s attack the doubleheader first. Kyle Freeland will need to pitch a little more than usual as the Game 1 starter in front of an awful Colorado Rockies bullpen.
He projects for nearly 18 outs so he will see plenty of batters. The last time I bet on a Colorado pitcher in a doubleheader was German Marquez, who had to eat some extra outs despite pitching poorly.
THE BAT projects this as one of the best +EV walk props today and the lefty has hit this Over in two of his last four starts after some unsustainable walk rates to begin the year with zero free passes issued across his first three starts.
Tigers vs. Rockies
The angle: The doubleheader means more work and Colorado walks at a much higher rate at home than on the road
The move: Casey Mize Over 1.5 walks allowed (+125 at DraftKings)
This one doesn’t project as well as Freeland, per THE BAT, but a lot of that has to do with the model not liking Casey Mize to get deep because of Coors, but the Rockies are awful. Mize could push his pitch count, which THE BAT has a modest 86 pitches.
The Detroit Tigers right-hander threw 95 pitches in his last start and went 21 outs. He had two walks, which was the third time in six starts he has gone Over this total.
The Rockies walk at a 9.3% at home compared to 6.6% on the road, which is one of the worst rates in baseball. Opposing pitchers can struggle with command at Coors as the ball doesn’t break the way it usually does at normal altitude.
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks
The angle: Pfaadt is one of the best control pitchers in baseball and this matchup and is overpriced
The move: Brandon Pfaadt Under 1.5 walks allowed (+130 at bet365)
There are few pitchers who I will bet a prop on at almost any reasonable number and Brandon Pfaadt Under 1.5 walks at -110 or better is one of them.
The Arizona Diamondbacks righty is one of the most efficient and low-BB% pitchers in baseball who pitches to contact very early in counts. He ranks 30th in the league at 3.8 pitches per plate appearance and finished last season at No. 2 at 3.7 pitches/PA.
He is 5-2 to the Under on the season and has yet to throw more than two walks in a start in 2025.
The home start on his own mound, even against the Los Angeles Dodgers, is just the icing on the cake.
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