Monday's MLB card is loaded with star power, and a few of baseball's biggest bats find themselves in favorable matchups.
Before locking in your MLB player props, here are the hitters I'm targeting to leave their mark tonight.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Shohei Ohtani |
Over 1.5 total bases | -138 |
 Jake Bauers |
Over 1.5 H/R/R | -131 |
 Kyle Stowers |
Over 1.5 H/R/R | -124 |
Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 total bases (-138)
“Colby, are you backing the power of dad because Shohei Ohtani just had a child?”
What? Now I am.
We back numbers here, folks. Off-field stuff is just a cherry on top. That said, I do love the great one this evening.
The number one rated hitter on Batters-Box today happens to be the Dodgers superstar, who continues to post some of the most delectable elite-rated trends.
In 133 elite road ratings:
- Hit: 75.19%
- 2+ Hits: 33.83%
- Home Run: 28.57%
- 2+ Bases: 59.9%
The great one has been on fire offensively as of late, posting a near 70% elevation rate while producing 77% hard contact and a 31% barrel rate over his last 30 road plate appearances. Over his last 90 at-bats against right-handed pitching, he also owns a .567 wOBA.
The Minnesota Twins send out right-hander Zebby Matthews, and like many others, we are still trying to figure out what a “Zebby” is. However, that is beside the point. Matthews owns one of the worst pitcher ratings on the slate and has struggled badly against lefties. Over his last 60 lefties faced, he has a 9.00 ERA and 7.01 xERA while allowing 48% hard contact, a 16% barrel rate, and a 70% elevation rate. Those hitters have produced a .350 xBA, .644 xSLG, and .417 xwOBA against him.
This will easily be one of Matthews’ biggest tests of the season, and I fully expect Ohtani to take full advantage this evening.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MNNT, SNLA
Jake Bauers Over 1.5 hits, runs, RBIs (-131)
Entering today with an elite rating on Batters-Box is Milwaukee Brewers first baseman Jake Bauers, who has been producing so much hard contact that I had to back him in some form this evening. Over his last 30 plate appearances, he has generated 77% hard contact and a 15.4% barrel rate against right-handed pitching. Zooming out to his last 60 plate appearances, he still holds a 73% hard contact rate and a 13.3% barrel rate, while posting a .596 slugging percentage and a .428 wOBA.
He draws Cincinnati Reds right-hander Brady Singer, against whom he holds 82% arsenal coverage. At home this season, Singer owns a 5.61 xERA and 5.33 xFIP, allowing 42.2% hard contact and a 14.1% barrel rate to opposing hitters. Those bats have produced a .280 xBA, .527 xSLG, and .380 xwOBA.
If you are not in the juice-paying mood tonight, pairing Bauers with one of the other plays on the card sets up a strong plus-money two-leg parlay.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CINR, BREW
Kyle Stowers Over 1.5 hits, runs, RBIs (-124)
A consistently trustworthy hitter for his HRR prop is Marlins outfielder Kyle Stowers, who enters with his 36th elite rating. In his previous 35, he has cleared this prop 54% of the time. At home, in 21 elite ratings, he has homered 28.57% of the time and gone over this prop 61.9% of the time.
The Fighting Fish slugger has been on a tear over his last 10 games, generating 63.2% hard contact, a 26.3% barrel rate, and elevating the ball 63.2% of the time. He also owns a .667 SLG, 1.109 OPS, and .471 wOBA in that stretch.
Stowers draws Rangers starter Kumar Rocker, against whom he has nearly 70% arsenal coverage. Rocker has consistently struggled vs left-handed hitters, who over his last 60 faced are producing 51% hard contact, a 12.2% barrel rate, and a 67% elevation rate, along with a .434 xBA, .826 xSLG, and .400 xwOBA.
I am trusting the trends tonight, and this feels like a strong spot for Stowers. If you are not a fan of laying juice, Stowers records a hit 71% of the time when he is elite. Pair him with Bauers for plus money.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MIAMI, RSN
- Prop picks: 239-426, +1.4 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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