The solid week continues with a third straight winning day. I'm on a 6-2 SU run after another 2-1 day yesterday by winning a pair of strikeout props by the hook. Let’s wrap up a great week!
These are my three favorite pitcher props and MLB picks for Friday, June 20.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for June 20
Gallen u17.5 outs (+120)
Boyd u5.5 Ks (+105)
Kirby u17.5 outs (-105)
Today's SP best bets
Diamondbacks vs. Rockies
The angle: Coors Field is once again a nightmare for pitchers today.
The move: Zac Gallen Under 17.5 outs recorded (+120 at bet365)
I’m buying this Under all the way to -110. Coors Field might be the toughest spot to pitch on the slate today with near 100-degree temperatures and double-digit winds blowing out.
It’s also the first game of the series, which is the toughest to adapt to for the visiting team at altitude. I like Zac Gallen’s Under 5.5 strikeouts in this spot too, but getting 18 outs in Coors has been a tough task this month and the setting is even tougher today.
In the last series at Coors, the Giants had plenty of good arms going and averaged 15 outs among three starters and each pitcher failed to record a win. The Rockies have been a better team with the better-hitting weather.
Mariners vs. Cubs
The angle: Boyd is not a long-leashed pitcher and will have to battle severe park factors today.
The move: Matthew Boyd Under 5.5 strikeouts (+105 at bet365)
I would go as low as -110 on this. It’s another tough spot for pitchers as Wrigley has 16-mph winds blowing out to Cal Raleigh territory in left field and it’s humid and 80 degrees.
Matthew Boyd is not a K/inning pitcher and has averaged just 90 pitches per start across his last 10 games. He has yet to top 95 pitches over those 10 games and has a season-high of 98 pitches this season. He doesn’t have the longest of leashes.
His Under 17.5 outs at +100 is also a great +EV play today, but I’ll take the Under Ks on a big number for a pitcher who does not get more than 95 pitches and 18 outs.
Mariners vs. Cubs
The angle: Kirby is not his efficient self and Wrigley is windy.
The move: George Kirby Under 17.5 outs (-105 at DraftKings)
Let’s stay in Wrigley and fade the pitcher on the other side, as well. George Kirby has not been himself since returning back in late May. He’s made five starts, is walking batters, is giving up home runs, and is not getting as deep as he was last year because of the inefficiency.
He is also coming off a season-high 101 pitches where he still only got 15 outs. Now he has to face an elite Chicago offense on the road with zero park factors in his favor. His ER total today is set at 3.5, which shows just how much scoring is possible today.
Wind, ballpark, form, and coming off a season-high in pitches — there are plenty of reasons to back this Under this afternoon.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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