Seattle Storm vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Taurasi & Co. Handle Business

On the heels of Diana Taurasi’s record-setting performance, the Phoenix Mercury will aim to make it two in a row as they host Jewell Loyd and the Seattle Storm on Saturday.

Both these teams have fallen from contenders to Western Conference afterthoughts in a short time, but with so much history between the two franchises from their recent glory days, pride will still be on the line Saturday night.

Our WNBA picks and predictions for Storm vs. Mercury believe the Mercury will come out strong at home in Brittney Griner’s return.

Storm vs Mercury best odds

Storm vs Mercury picks and predictions

The Seattle Storm (6-20) and Phoenix Mercury (7-19) are the two worst teams in the Western Conference, but relative to expectations, it’s hard to argue that the Storm haven’t been the better of the two teams this season. After all, they own a much better overall record against the spread than the Mercury.

Then why back the Mercury to cover this (admittedly modest) 2.5-point spread? For a few reasons, but one stands out as chief among them. I’m not backing the Mercury to cover this line, I’m backing the Mercury at home.

Phoenix has been such a starkly different squad on the road compared to at home that this distinction is not merely for exaggerated effect, it's a more accurate way to conceptualize the Mercury as a team. 

The Mercury have a -16.2 net rating on the road this season, which is almost impossibly bad. For comparison, the Las Vegas Aces are on their way to being one of the best teams of all time with a +19 net rating overall (and +23.8 at home). The degree to which the Mercury struggle on the road is nearly comparable to how the Aces have dominated every team they’ve played this season.

However, it’s a different story when the Mercury play at Footprint Center. In their own barn, their net rating rises more than 17 points to a completely respectable +1.4, good enough for sixth in the Association. That’s led to them being a much stronger team against the spread at home than overall, with Phoenix going 4-0 ATS in their last four home tilts.

The Storm, by contrast, are quite a bit better on the road than at home, but with a net rating of -4.2, the seeming gap between these two teams facing off in Phoenix is significant. A 5-point gap in team quality would be enough to recommend this line, and that is before accounting for the return of a potentially revitalized Brittney Griner. 

Griner is returning from a three-game mental health break. One would expect that Griner will be rejuvenated after the time off, having been able to rest her mind as well as her body. She’s a problem for Seattle who don’t have the kind of backline behemoth needed to bang with her, and she’s also a massive rim deterrent to any Storm penetration. 

With Griner back in the fold and Phoenix rising from the ashes at home, I believe they’re a strong bet to cover this line.

My best bet: Mercury -2.5 (-110 at bet365)

Storm vs Mercury spread and Over/Under analysis

While a significant part of the Mercury’s steady play at home comes from improved shooting, they also get to the line a lot more while also limiting opponent 3-point shots. The last point is particularly crucial, as with Griner returning, the Storm will need to hit a high volume of threes to make up for their inability to score inside. 

Jewell Loyd is a problem for every team right now, but even if she goes off, it will require more perimeter players hitting shots than just the Gold Mamba to keep this game close. Phoenix has proven that — at least at home — it can deny opposing perimeter players those looks.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see this line move further in the Mercury’s favor before tip-off, but it's an easy choice where it stands now at Phoenix -2.5.

The total for Saturday’s game opened and has held at 161.5, a low number given the relative futility of both Seattle and Phoenix’s defensive numbers.

These are two of the three worst defenses in the league, and both have real weapons that the other will find difficult to contain. Griner should mash on the interior, and even if Diana Taurasi doesn’t have another 42-point game in her, she’s still been consistently doing damage from behind the arc and the charity stripe for weeks now.

Loyd poses the same problem but for Phoenix, as does the Storm's desire to play fast and in transition. The Mercury have struggled with turnovers and transition defense all season long, something that Seattle will no doubt try to take full advantage of given how poorly Storm players not named Jewell score in the halfcourt.

Both these teams have played in a series of Unders, which is probably why despite their defensive issues, this line has come in relatively low. The Under is 4-0 in Seattle’s last four games and 6-1 in Phoenix’s last seven.

Another reason is that when the Mercury play at home, they slow games down to a crawl. They have the slowest pace of any home team at just 93.38.

Storm vs Mercury betting trend to know

The Mercury are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Storm vs. Mercury.

Storm vs Mercury game info

Storm vs Mercury key injuries

Storm: No key injuries to report.
Mercury: Brittney Griner C (Questionable), Skylar Diggins-Smith G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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