Elly De La Cruz has feasted on right-handed pitching all season long. My Reds vs. Pirates predictions are banking on that continuing against Mitch Keller, who has not pitched as well of late.
Let’s take a closer look at my August 8 MLB picks.
Reds vs Pirates prediction
Reds vs Pirates best bet: Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 total bases (+105 at bet365)
Elly De La Cruz has recorded multiple total bases in 45% of his games this season. Despite playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark at home, his road numbers are just as good. He’s averaged exactly 1.8 bases per game on the road and in Cincinnati.
His floor and ceiling shouldn’t be impacted by playing in a more pitcher-friendly park in Pittsburgh. A matchup with Mitch Keller could help raise both, though.
Keller is a fastball-first pitcher against left-handed bats, throwing it nearly 30% more frequently than any other pitch.
That’s good news for De La Cruz, who is hitting .319 with a .434 wOBA and eight homers against righties throwing the fastball this season. Remarkably strong numbers.
De La Cruz possesses real power and the speed to turn any ball put in play into extra bases, making him an appealing player to back in this matchup.
Reds vs Pirates same-game parlay (SGP)
Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 total bases
Oneil Cruz Over 1.5 total bases
Over 7.5
Chase Burns has given up significantly more power to left-handed bats. He’s allowed 1.27 more homers per nine innings and a barrel rate 10% higher.
Burns leans heavily on a fastball/slider combo against lefties, and Cruz has strong power numbers against both pitches, sporting a .260 ISO vs. the fastball and .316 against sliders.
Burns has allowed 2.7 earned runs per start while Keller has given up 11 over his last three games. The offenses should be able to score here.
Reds vs Pirates odds
Reds vs Pirates live odds
Reds vs Pirates opening odds
- Moneyline: Cincinnati +100 | Pittsburgh -120
- Run line: Cincinnati +1.5 (-200) | Pittsburgh -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-110) | Under 8 (-110)
Reds vs Pirates trend
De La Cruz has averaged 3.1 total bases over his last 12 wins against Pittsburgh. Find more MLB betting trends for Reds vs. Pirates.
How to watch Reds vs Pirates and game info
| Location | PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date | Friday, August 8, 2025 |
| First pitch | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | Apple TV+ |
| Reds starting pitcher | Chase Burns (0-3, 6.04 ERA) |
| Pirates starting pitcher | Mitch Keller (5-10, 3.89 ERA) |
Reds vs Pirates latest injuries
Reds vs Pirates weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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