The Boston Red Sox face the Baltimore Orioles in MLB action tonight. These have been two of the best teams when it comes to cashing the Over, and my Red Sox vs. Orioles predictions are expecting another high-scoring contest.
Here are my best free MLB picks for Saturday, August 17.
Red Sox vs Orioles prediction
My best bet
Over 9.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Baltimore Orioles have recalled Cade Povich from Triple-A Norfolk to start today. The 24-year-old southpaw is a promising prospect, but he's looked out of his depth this season. He currently owns a 6.27 ERA with an OBA of .270, and the left-hander has walked a whopping 23 batters through 37 1/3 innings.
Meanwhile, the Boston Red Sox are second in the majors in batting average (.262) and third in OPS (.771). They've been even better since the All-Star break, batting .285 with a .846 OPS. If Povic gives out free passes today, this red-hot Boston lineup will have no problems driving in runs.
The Red Sox are starting Brayan Bello, who has a 4.97 ERA with a 1.44 WHIP through 22 starts. Bello has really struggled against lefties, allowing them to slug .498. As many as seven batters could have the platoon advantage against him today — including All-Stars Gunnar Henderson, Anthony Santander, and Adley Rutschman.
With those sluggers leading the way, the Orioles have been mashing, ranking second in the majors in OPS (.774) and plating 5.08 runs per game. They also lead the majors in hard-hit rate while ranking third in exit velocity and barrel rate.
Considering we have a pair of shaky starters facing two of the best-hitting teams in the majors, Over 9.5 is an easy choice.
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Red Sox vs Orioles same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 9.5
Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 total bases
Brayan Bello Over 4.5 strikeouts
Henderson was named the AL Rookie of the Year last year, and now he's a full-blown superstar. He's slashing .287/.374/.553 and is sixth in the majors with 266 total bases through 121 games. He slugs .579 against righties and should thrive with the platoon advantage tonight.
While Bello has struggled with a 5.42 ERA and an OBA of .289 in his last 15 starts, he fanned at least five batters in 11 of those outings. That includes a game in Baltimore in May where he racked up seven strikeouts in five innings.
Taking the Over on his strikeouts, along with the Over on the full game total, creates a nice multiplier for this parlay.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Red Sox vs Orioles odds
Red Sox vs Orioles live odds
Red Sox vs Orioles opening odds
- Run line: Boston +1.5 (-185) | Baltimore -1.5 (+155)
- Moneyline: Boston +105 | Baltimore -125
- Over/Under: Over 9 (-105) | Under 9 (-115)
Red Sox vs Orioles spread and Over/Under analysis
- The total opened at 9.0, with the action on the Over immediately shifting the number to 9.5.
- The Orioles have the fourth-best record in the majors at 72-51 but have been a .500 team since the start of July.
- The Red Sox had the best pitching staff in the majors at the start of the year, but regression has since set in. Boston has allowed a whopping 5.68 runs per game since June.
- The Red Sox beat the Orioles 12-10 last night but are just 2-6 against them this year.
Red Sox vs Orioles trend
The Over is 40-21 in Boston's last 61 games and 44-31 in Baltimore's previous 75 contests. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Orioles.
Red Sox vs Orioles game info
| Location: | Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| Date: | Saturday, 8-17-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NESN, MASN |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Brayan Bello (10-5, 4.97 ERA) |
| Orioles starting pitcher: | Cade Povich (1-5, 6.27 ERA) |
Red Sox vs Orioles latest injuries
Red Sox vs Orioles weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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