Toronto Blue Jays slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is heating up and profiles well for continued success against Houston Astros starter Peter Lambert, making Over 1.5 total bases for Vladdy my favorite play tonight.
Read on for my Astros vs. Blue Jays predictions and MLB picks for this Tuesday, June 23 matchup.
Astros vs Blue Jays predictions
Astros vs Blue Jays best bet: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases (+105)
Toronto Blue Jays slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. profiles extremely well against Peter Lambert.
The Houston Astros starter primarily throws a fastball/sinker/slider combination, which is a pitch mix that Vladdy has handled well this season, with a .314 batting average and a .331 BABIP.
Lambert has also allowed solid contact at a 7.5% rate, which is 1.6% above league average.
Guerrero Jr. is barreling the baseball more efficiently lately, too, which has seen an uptick in production over the last two weeks where he owns a .409 average and a .591 SLG.
Additionally, Guerrero Jr. has eclipsed this number in four of his last five games with a .526 SLG over this stretch, showing serious signs of a turnaround, which gives me confidence in his market.
I’d bet Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases down to +100.
COVERS INTEL: Guerrero ranks in the 94th percentile in xBA, and owns a 137 WRC+ over his last 20 at-bats.
Astros vs Blue Jays same-game parlay (SGP)
George Springer is turning a corner, too, sporting a .351 average and 1.090 OPS over his last 10 games, recording a hit in eight of those outings. Additionally, he’s historically hit well against Lambert‘s pitch mix.
I’ll also add Kazuma Okamoto Over 0.5 hits. He owns a .375 average against Lambert's pitches since June 1, while recording at least one hit in 13 of 18 games this month.
Astros vs Blue Jays SGP
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases
- George Springer Over 0.5 hits
- Kazuma Okamoto Over 0.5 hits
Astros vs Blue Jays home run pick: Kazuma Okamoto (+280)
Okamoto profiles well against Lambert, who gives up a lot of solid contact, while ranking in the 48th percentile in hard-hit rate.
This all plays into Okamoto’s strengths, as he barrels the ball as well as anyone on the Jays roster and leads the team with 17 home runs while owning a .553 SLG and a 58.1% hard-hit rate against Lambert's pitch mix.
Additionally, Lambert has surrendered six home runs over his last seven-outings.
Despite the good matchup for Okamoto, the home run market is volatile, so I’ll make this a half-unit wager.
- Best bets: 36-39, +2.15 units
- SGPs: 14-61, +1.15 units
- HR picks: 13-62, +2.9 units
Astros vs Blue Jays odds
- Moneyline: Houston +112 | Toronto -132
- Run line: Houston +1.5 | Toronto -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Astros vs Blue Jays trend
The Blue Jays have hit the Over in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.30 Units / 19% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Blue Jays.
How to watch Astros vs Blue Jays and game info
| Location | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date | Tuesday, 6-23-2026 |
| First pitch | 4:07 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLBN, SN |
| Astros starting pitcher | Peter Lambert (6-4, 3.23 ERA) |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher | Shane Bieber (2025: 4-2, 3.57 ERA) |
Astros vs Blue Jays latest injuries
Astros vs Blue Jays weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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