MLB Predictions and Moneyline Picks for Tuesday, June 23

All 30 MLB teams are in action tonight, and I've got MLB picks for all 15 games.

Here are my favorite leans and looks for MLB moneyline predictions for Tuesday, June 23, featuring the underdog Rockies.

MLB moneyline picks for June 23

Matchup	Pick
Astros vs Blue Jays	+120
Royals vs Rays	+170
Yankees vs Tigers	-106
Rangers vs Marlins	-147
Mariners vs Pirates	+115
Phillies vs Nationals	-156
Brewers vs Reds	-102
Cubs vs Mets	-106
Dodgers vs Twins	+160
Guardians vs White Sox	-104
Diamondbacks vs Cardinals	-106
Red Sox vs Rockies	+150
Orioles vs Angels	-135
Braves vs Padres	-106
Athletics vs Giants	+125

Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 6-23.

Trade on the MLB at Polymarket!

Sign up now using our exclusive Polymarket promo code 'COVERS' (on your mobile app only) and get a $50 trading bonus after you deposit $50 to trade on any other event contracts — including MLB moneylines!

Sign Up Now at

*Eligible locations only

Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account

Expert MLB moneyline picks for June 23

Astros vs Blue Jays: Astros (+120)

Astros win probability: 46%

Shane Bieber makes his first start of the season, and while Houston’s offense has been inconsistent lately, this is still a spot I am hesitant to trust a pitcher who has not taken a major-league mound since November 1, 2025.

Early-season timing, rhythm, and command are always questions in a return like this.

On the other side, Peter Lambert has been steady and serviceable for the Astros, giving them a more stable and warmed-up option in this matchup.

In a spot that could swing on execution rather than talent, I prefer the arm that is already in midseason form and operating with a defined recent workload.

Royals vs Rays: Royals (+170)

Royals win probability: 37%

“But Colby, you said you could never trust this offense yesterday.”

Yeah, I still do not fully trust them, but over their last 12 games, they have posted a 135 wRC+, .825 OPS, and a .362 wOBA while also generating a 33.6% hard-hit rate.

Meanwhile, the Rays have cooled off over that same stretch, sitting under a 34% hard-hit rate and below a 6% barrel rate.

Tampa Bay left-hander Shane McClanahan has been inconsistent lately, while Royals right-hander Luinder Avila has also shown some volatility. Away from home, McClanahan has been much sharper, owning a 1.80 ERA, 3.16 xERA, and a 1.08 WHIP.

I will side with the hotter offense in this spot.

Yankees vs Tigers: Yankees (-106)

Yankees win probability: 52%

Casey Mize has been strong for the Tigers this season, but I still cannot trust their offense. Over their last six games, Detroit has posted a 96 wRC+, .682 OPS, and .146 ISO, showing limited impact at the plate.

On the other side, the Yankees offense has stayed consistent, producing a 121 wRC+, .791 OPS, and .348 wOBA over their last 12 games. Carlos Rodon has also been steady overall, carrying a 3.50 ERA on the season with a 3.37 expected ERA.

In this matchup, I will side with the more consistent offense.

Rangers vs Marlins: Marlins (-147)

Marlins win probability: 60%

Cal Quantrill makes his first start of the season after working out of the bullpen, carrying a 3.68 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in that role. Miami’s offense has been productive lately, and this is a spot where I can see their bats staying hot against a below-average arm.

Sandy Alcantara has not been at his sharpest this season, but I would still rather trust him in this matchup than Quantrill. The veteran right-hander's recent profile raises concern, with a 50% hard-hit rate and a 10% barrel rate over his last few outings.

In a game with scoring potential on both sides, I will side with the Marlins offense.

Mariners vs Pirates: Pirates (+115)

Pirates win probability: 46%

I will happily take the Rally Rats in this spot at home. They have played their best baseball all season in their own ballpark and are seeing the ball well lately.

Mitch Keller has been fairly unreliable, but I view this as a spot where Pittsburgh’s offense can be the driving force behind a win.

Seattle has been ice cold over its last 12 games, posting a 70 wRC+, .087 ISO, and just a 31.5% hard-hit rate. George Kirby has also struggled in his recent outings, carrying a 5.60 ERA and a .161 WHIP over his last five starts.

I expect this Pirates offense to get on top of his stuff early and often.

Phillies vs Nationals: Phillies (-156)

Phillies win probability: 61%

Nationals right-hander Zack Littell profiles for trouble in this spot.

At home this season he carries a 6.31 ERA and 6.96 xERA while allowing a 45% hard-hit rate and nearly a 15% barrel rate, all indicators of sustained damage risk. With that in mind, Bryce Harper stands out individually, and it also strengthens the case for backing the full Phillies offense.

On the other side, Jesus Luzardo has been excellent on the road, posting a 1.55 ERA while limiting hard contact consistently.

Even with the elevated price, the underlying profile and matchup point toward Philadelphia as the side worth backing.

Brewers vs Reds: Brewers (-102)

Brewers win probability: 50%

This one came down to the wire last night, but I still believe the Brewers are the right side here.

Cincinnati right-hander Nick Lodolo has been shaky at home this season, carrying a 7.27 ERA and 6.76 xERA while allowing plenty of hard contact and barrels to opposing hitters. On the other side, Brandon Sproat has not been much better, but he limits free passes and benefits from a lower BABIP profile.

Offensively, Cincinnati has been ice cold over the last 20 games, posting an 87 wRC+, 26.3% strikeout rate, and a .675 OPS as a team. Milwaukee, meanwhile, has stayed locked in with a 131 wRC+, .819 OPS, and .182 ISO over that same stretch.

Once again, this comes down to the more consistent offense, and that edge clearly belongs to Milwaukee.

Cubs vs Mets: Mets (-106)

Mets win probability: 52%

My MLB player props are already high on Juan Soto to do damage at the dish tonight, especially given how much Cubs right-hander Edward Cabrera has struggled since returning from injury.

On the other side, Kodai Senga has also been inconsistent, so this is less about trusting either arm and more about targeting the spot.

The Cubs have been swinging it well, but I am leaning into the Mets offense to jump on Cabrera early and set the tone in this one.

Dodgers vs Twins: Twins (+160)

Twins win probability: 38%

As surprising as it is to say, the Twins have been rolling lately. Over their last 12 games, they are posting a .380 wOBA, 129 wRC+, and an .811 OPS, showing real life at the plate.

The Dodgers, meanwhile, have cooled off over their last six games with a .300 wOBA, 92 wRC+, and .664 OPS.

Los Angeles sends southpaw Justin Wrobleski to the mound, who carries a 4.61 expected ERA on the road while allowing a 43% hard-hit rate and a 9.29% barrel rate to opposing hitters. For Minnesota, Kendry Rojas gets the ball with a 1.26 ERA this season, though the walk rate is a concern.

Even so, given how hot the Twins offense has been, I am willing to take the shot on their bats continuing to produce.

Guardians vs White Sox: Guardians (-104)

Guardians win probability: 51%

Guardians right-hander Parker Messick has been excellent this season, entering today with one of the highest pitcher ratings on the slate. On the other side, Sean Burke takes the mound for the White Sox, and he has not been the most consistent option in their rotation.

Chicago also comes in off a walk-off win last night, which adds a potential letdown spot into the mix. Burke has shown vulnerability to hard contact, and I expect Cleveland to take advantage and get to him early this evening.

Diamondbacks vs Cardinals: Cardinals (-106)

Cardinals win probability: 49%

It is the Cardinals again, and I am very high on Ivan Herrera in this spot against Eduardo Rodriguez. That alone makes it hard to ignore the rest of the St. Louis lineup.

Per Batters-Box, the Cardinals rank as the seventh highest rated offense on the slate, while Rodriguez enters with the fourth-worst pitcher rating in the current season sample. That is a tough combination to overlook.

Arizona’s offense has cooled off over the last few weeks, while St. Louis has been one of the hotter lineups in baseball recently. In a spot like this, I want the offense that is trending up, and that points directly to the Cardinals.

Red Sox vs Rockies: Rockies (+150)

Rockies win probability: 40%

Run it back with the Rockies.

Simply put, the Red Sox have looked lifeless at the plate, while Colorado is starting to find some rhythm offensively. Even with last night coming down to a walk-off win, I am still willing to back the Rockies here at plus money.

At +150, the price is too strong to ignore given the current form on both sides. Colorado’s offense is showing signs of life, and in a spot like this, I am willing to ride the hotter bats and fade a Boston lineup that just has not been consistent.

Orioles vs Angels: Orioles (-135)

Orioles win probability: 57%

Simply put, this is a fade of a struggling arm in a favorable matchup. Ryan Johnson has been ice cold for the Angels, carrying a 12.83 ERA and 2.33 WHIP on the season, making it difficult to trust him in any competitive spot.

On the other side, the Orioles offense has started to heat up, posting a 116 wRC+, .195 ISO, and .339 wOBA over their last 12 games, showing real improvement at the plate.

The Angels lineup does not offer much resistance here either, with only two strong-rated hitters in this matchup. In a spot like this, I will side with the Orioles offense against a pitcher I am fading.

Braves vs Padres: Braves (-106)

Braves win probability: 52%

If German Marquez is on the mound tonight for the Padres, the Braves are an automatic look for me. He owns a 10.38 ERA at home this season while allowing a near 50% hard-hit rate and an 11.11% barrel rate to opposing hitters, which is a tough combination to trust in any matchup.

According to Batters-Box, Atlanta also brings seven elite-rated bats into this spot against him, which is more than enough firepower to create damage throughout the lineup.

Athletics vs Giants: Athletics (+125)

Athletics win probability: 44%

Aaron Civale is on the mound for the Athletics this evening, but I am not fully willing to trust that clubhouse with everything going on around Rafael Devers.

Instead, I am willing to take a shot fading Robbie Ray at plus money. The Athletics offense has been swinging it well lately, and getting value against a pitcher who has not been at his sharpest this season feels like the right side.

Pages related to this topic