Red Sox vs Cubs Predictions, Picks, Odds: Boston Puts a Hurting on Hendricks

At last, we're back from the All-Star break, and we're welcomed in one game with a trip to Chicago when the Boston Red Sox take on the Chicago Cubs. 

Tonight will mark the start of a three-game set for the two teams. I'm keeping an eye on each of these teams post-break.

For the Cubs, it's because they find themselves in a highly competitive divisional race with plenty of chances to move up. Even though they didn't play well to end the first half, I'm still a fan of their overall quality. The Red Sox started to play well toward the end of the first half. They ended by winning five straight, including two over the Texas Rangers.

Read on for my best bet, analysis of the MLB odds, and full MLB picks and predictions for Cubs vs. Red Sox on Friday, July 14.

Red Sox vs Cubs odds

Red Sox vs Cubs predictions

This matchup has some solid contrasting angles, and they are the strongest from a pitching perspective. 

The Chicago Cubs will send Kyle Hendricks to the mound. He's had a bit of a late-career renaissance, but many things point to a downturn as we advance. The Red Sox will counter with Brayan Bello. Bello has steadily improved seemingly every time he's played. It's to the point where I can't imagine betting against him. I won't do it today, either. I'm grabbing the Red Sox as my best bet.

As I stated, Bello has been quite impressive lately. Since a start in May against the Tampa Bay Rays, he has yet to allow more than two runs. In addition to that, he's given lengthy starts, going seven innings or more in two of his previous three outings. The challenges he'll give this Cubs lineup are multiple. One is that they should struggle against his primary pitch.

Bello's fastball has been a critical point of his turnaround. His velocity sits in the Top 25% of baseball, and that pitch has delivered a whiff rate of over 20%. This Cubs lineup is built with a manageable amount of great fastball hitters. Of course, you have Cody Bellinger (who is seemingly hitting everything these days), but this lineup is mainly filled with average fastball hitters outside of that. It's not like they are terrible against it, but when you're facing elite velocity, and you're simply average against it, I suspect the end result will be a struggle. 

Boston is strong enough on Bello's form alone. However, things get even more compelling when you factor in what's going on with Hendricks along with his matchup.

Hendricks' regression may have begun. He has pitched admirably throughout the season, the second-best he's ever pitched in his career from a runs perspective, but there was always looming regression. It needed to be more sustainable to have the metrics he had and hope to maintain a sub-3.00 ERA. We saw it in his last start against the New York Yankees when he was hit hard for four runs over five innings. I think the Red Sox can replicate some of what the Yankees did in that matchup.

The struggles for Hendricks are centered around him simply allowing too many bats on the ball. That's an issue against Boston.

The Red Sox do damage when they put the ball in play, owning the fifth-best BABIP rate in the league. When you're saddled with an expected batting average of .255 — one of the worst in the league — like Hendricks is, then you expect those types of teams to do damage against you. 

Grab the Red Sox tonight. It's a bit juicy, but it's worth the squeeze. I projected Boston at -152, so this line has plenty of value, especially given how strong an advantage they'll have on the mound. 

My best bet: Red Sox moneyline (-134 at FanDuel)

Red Sox vs Cubs same-game parlay

Red Sox moneyline

Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 bases

Jarren Duran Over 1.5 bases

+651 at FanDuel

The Red Sox moneyline will be the anchor of our same-game parlay. We will pair it with two hot hitters with two excellent matchups.

Now Bellinger hits pretty much any pitch that he'll see from Bello well, but my favorite thing about this play is based around the changeup. It's the pitch Bello goes to when he's in trouble, and it's produced a batting average of .167 on the season. It'll work against the majority of the Cubs lineup except Bellinger. He has smacked changeups this season. He has a hard-hit rate against them that's in the Top 25% of the league and bats over .300 against them.

We're pairing Bellinger with Jarren Duran. He finished the first half of the season going over this number in two of his last three games. He gets a hurler who pitches to contact and throws breaking balls more than 50% of the time. Duran has hit breaking balls well this season, to the tune of .310.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Red Sox vs Cubs moneyline and Over/Under analysis

I feel strongly about the Red Sox taking care of business tonight. You always wonder about how things will carry over after the break, but these teams and pitchers couldn't be going in more opposite directions. I've spoken clearly about what that looks like from a pitching perspective with Bello, but it also holds true from a team side. 

Boston has been hot; it won five straight before the break. It's been nearly the complete opposite for Chicago. It was handed two straight losses to the New York Yankees before the break for a series loss. 

From a total perspective, this seems about right on. I projected this number at 9.5, and while 9 is available, I need more of an edge.

I'm confident that the Red Sox will succeed in hitting Hendricks. The matchup is just too good. However, on the other side, I need a more substantial feel for how many runs the Cubs could plate. If Bello continues his form and delivers another seven innings, two-run performance, it may be enough to keep this Under. If I was interested in anything here, it would be the Red Sox Team Total Over.

Trend to know

The Red Sox have won five straight games. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Cubs

Red Sox vs Cubs game info

Starting pitchers

Brayan Bello (6-5, 3.04 ERA): Bello's ascension this season has been something I've enjoyed watching. While he struggled early on, he's improved upon each start to where he is now. That place? Going seven or more innings in three of his last four starts while allowing two or fewer runs in each. That's impressive for any pitcher; it's especially impressive for one who is 24 years old and hasn't reached his ceiling. There are still concerns for Bello though. The whiff rate remains below average, and the hard-hit rate is slightly higher than you'd like. But you have to project with him; what we've seen lately is quite impressive. 

Kyle Hendricks (3-3, 3.04 ERA): The rumors of Kyle Hendricks' demise were exaggerated. After posting a career-high ERA a season ago, you wondered if the 33-year-old should consider calling it quits. He's responded with a bounce-back season and one of the better ERAs he's had at some point. Some metrics point to regression, and he got that in the last game before the All-Star break against the New York Yankees. There he allowed four earned runs in five innings. It was the worst performance of the season, so he'll try to back it up with a strong start.

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