"Big Dumper" Cal Raleigh gets all the headlines, but the Seattle Mariners' lineup has been really good as a whole. My Royals vs. Mariners predictions are betting those bats come to play when they take on Seth Lugo and the Kansas City Royals.
My MLB picks break down why it’s going to be a tough night for the K.C. starter, with first pitch set for 10:10 pm ET at T-Mobile Park in Seattle on Thursday, July 3.
Royals vs Mariners prediction
My Royals vs Mariners best bet: Mariners team total Over 3.5 (-125 at DraftKings)
Cal Raleigh was named the starting catcher for the American League All-Star team last night, thanks to a first half that has seen him swat 33 home runs and drive in 71 runs.
But this Seattle Mariners team is dangerous because it's getting contributions up and down the lineup. Julio Rodriguez looks good again, Jorge Polanco is having a nice bounce-back season, and Randy Arozarena is red-hot right now.
As a result, the Mariners enter tonight’s matchup with the Kansas City Royals ranked fourth in batting average, ninth in OPS, and third in wRC+ since June 1.
Tonight, they face Royals starter Seth Lugo. The veteran right-hander owns a solid 2.74 ERA this season, but the advanced numbers say a regression is on the horizon. The 35-year-old ranks in the 22nd percentile in expected ERA and the 25th in expected batting average.
It also means we’re getting a good number when it comes to the Mariners team total, which is sitting at a modest 3.5. This team total is based on Lugo’s ERA and not much else. The number should be sitting at 4.0 at the very least. That’s a mistake I’ll happily play any day of the week.
Royals vs Mariners same-game parlay (SGP)
Mariners team total Over 3.5
Randy Arozarena 2+ total bases
Seth Lugo 5+ hits allowed
Part of tonight’s production for the Mariners has got to come from Randy Arozarena. He’s arguably the hottest hitter in baseball with five straight multi-hit games and four home runs in his last three.
He’s also hitting .375 with a 1.118 OPS over his last 14 games overall, grabbing 2+ total bases 11 times. Let’s bet on him to get at least two more tonight.
As noted, Lugo has been a bit lucky this season, and a high-average team like the Mariners should make consistent contact against him. Add 5+ hits for Lugo to this same-game parlay.
Royals vs Mariners odds
Royals vs Mariners live odds
Royals vs Mariners opening odds
- Moneyline: Kansas City +130 | Seattle -155
- Run line: Kansas City +1.5 (-165) | Seattle -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under: Over 7.0 | Under 7.0
Royals vs Mariners trend
The Royals have only hit the Team Total Over in 26 of their last 87 games for -44.05 Units and a -43% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Royals vs. Mariners.
How to watch Royals vs Mariners and game info
| Location | T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA |
| Date | Thursday, 7-3-2025 |
| First pitch | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | FanDuel Sports Network-KC, RSNW |
| Royals starting pitcher | Seth Lugo (5-5, 2.74 ERA) |
| Mariners starting pitcher | Bryan Woo (7-4, 2.93 ERA) |
Royals vs Mariners latest injuries
Royals vs Mariners weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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