Looking for today's picks? Check out our MLB player prop picks for Friday, July 4.
Cal Raleigh leads the majors with 33 homers but his breakout year means we can get value betting against him.
I'm fading the Mariners hard-hitting catcher but my MLB picks are backing Angels outfielder Taylor Ward and Dodgers superstar Freddie Freeman.
Here are my three favorite MLB player props for Thursday, July 3.
Best MLB player props today
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Ward o1.5 total bases (+150) -
Freeman o0.5 RBI (+145) -
Raleigh u1.5 total bases (-135)
MLB props for Thursday, July 3
Taylor Ward Over 1.5 total bases (+150 at bet365)
Los Angeles Angels outfielder Taylor Ward has been crushing the ball. He's 11th in the majors in home runs (20) while ranking 17th in doubles (20). Over the last two months, Ward is slugging .559 while racking up 109 total bases through 52 games.
He has a great matchup tonight against struggling Atlanta Braves right-hander Bryce Elder. Elder is in the bottom fifth percentile in expected ERA (5.70) and expected batting average (.302).
Opposing batters are slugging .515 against Elder and he relies heavily on his sinker, an offering which Ward slugs .741 against. This is a five-star prop play according to THE BAT X, which is projecting 1.9 total bases for Ward today.
Game: Angels vs. Braves (7:15 pm ET)
How to watch: ESPN+ and MLB.TV
Freddie Freeman Over 0.5 RBI (+145 at BET99)
Freddie Freeman had an ugly June where he slashed just .200/.283/.274. However, he broke out of that slump by going 2-5 at the dish against the Chicago White Sox last night.
The star first baseman is in the Top 10th percentile in expected batting average (.292) and the Top 20th percentile in expected slugging percentage (.501), and his track record strongly indicated he would turn things around.
Today, Freeman will face Aaron Civale who has a 5.92 ERA in five starts on the road. Freeman thrives with the platoon advantage, slugging .524 against righties like Civale.
Chicago also has a poor bullpen and Freeman will be in a good spot to drive in a run batting behind elite table-setters Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts. In addition, there's a 10 mph breeze blowing towards the outfield at Dodger Stadium tonight.
Game: White Sox vs. Dodgers (10:10 pm ET)
How to watch: Apple TV+ and MLB Network
Cal Raleigh Under 1.5 total bases (-135 at bet365)
Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh has a modest .272 batting average and doesn't hit many doubles. That means the MLB home run leader usually needs to hit a dinger to eclipse his 1.5 total bases prop.
He won't find it easy to jack a homer tonight at pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park, especially with Seth Lugo on the hill for the Kansas City Royals. Lugo has pitched to a 2.74 ERA through 15 starts while holding opposing batters to a slugging percentage of just .362.
Raleigh has gone below 1.5 total bases in 46 of 84 games this season and his home/away and platoon splits don't favor him today. Raleigh crushes lefties with a .763 slugging percentage but that number drops to .589 against righties like Lugo. He also has an OPS of 1.080 on the road with that dropping to .959 at home.
Game: Royals vs. Mariners (10:10 pm ET)
How to watch: Apple TV+
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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