Red Sox vs Cubs Picks and Predictions: Boston Beats Up on Sampson, Chicago

Boston enjoyed a strong June but faltered a bit at the end, dropping two of three to Toronto. The Red Sox now get a perfect get-right spot at Wrigley Field against the lowly Cubs. We've got the MLB betting breakdown for you in our picks.

Last Updated: Jul 1, 2022 9:35 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Alex Verdugo Boston Red Sox MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Boston Red Sox needed a day off after dropping two of three to the Blue Jays, and now they’ll travel to Chicago to take on the Cubs for three games.

The Chicago Cubs are trying to move out of fourth place in the NL Central, now just a game behind the Pirates. 

Will the Cubs slay the mighty Red Sox or will Boston be able to control Chicago? Find out with our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Red Sox vs. Cubs on July 1.

Red Sox vs Cubs odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Red Sox opened as -133 favorites and quickly went to -125 at WynnBet. The Cubs started at +110 and are now at +115 at WynnBet. The total has stayed at 9.0 with the Over and Under at -110. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Red Sox vs Cubs predictions

Picks made on 7/1/2022 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Red Sox vs Cubs game info

Location: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
Date: Friday, July 1, 2022
First pitch: 2:20 p.m. ET
TV: NESN, Marquee Sports Network

Red Sox vs Cubs betting preview

Starting pitchers

Rich Hill (4-4, 4.09 ERA): The 42-year-old left-hander limited the Guardians to one run on five hits in six innings in picking up his fourth victory of the season during his last outing. His four other starts in June have been against Detroit (29-45), Oakland (25-52), Seattle (36-41), and Oakland. In those four games, Hill allowed a total of 10 runs on 21 hits, including two homers. 

Adrian Sampson (0-0, 1.69 ERA): Sampson was recalled from the Iowa Cubs because Chicago has five starting pitchers out of action. He spent time in the bullpen for a little over a month, appearing in two games of relief and allowing two runs in 5 2-3 innings of action. He got his first start of the season last Saturday against the St. Louis Cardinals and went five innings, allowing two runs on four hits.

Weather

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Key injuries

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Betting trend to know

The Cubs are 1-6 in their last seven interleague home games against a team with a winning record. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Cubs

Red Sox vs Cubs picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The Red Sox were one of the hottest teams in June. Boston went 20-6 in the month to tie a franchise record for the highest winning percentage at .769, matching the same mark it had in July 2011. 

The Red Sox did stumble in the last three games of the month, only winning the last of a three-game series against the Toronto Blue Jays, who they share second place with in the American League East. 

They now travel to Chicago to take on a Cubs team that just won two of three against the last-place Cincinnati Reds to avoid replacing the Reds in the cellar of the National League Central. 

For the first game against the Red Sox, the Cubs are sending journeyman Adrian Sampson to the mound. Sampson was called up from Triple-A Iowa a week ago because of all the injuries to Chicago’s starting rotation. 

The 30-year-old has had one start with the Cubs. He pitched decently, allowing two runs on four hits in five innings against the St. Louis Cardinals. 

Boston is 7-0 in its last seven games following a day off and is 7-2 in its last nine against a right-handed starter. 

The Cubs are 0-4 in their last four interleague games against a team with a winning record and are 0-4 in their last four against a left-handed starter. They are also 0-6 in their last six against the American League East. 

Prediction: Red Sox moneyline (-125 at WynnBet)

Over/Under analysis

Though Sampson pitched well in his first start of the season, he has not had similar results against the Red Sox in his career. The righty has faced the Red Sox as a starter twice in his career. In 9 2-3 innings, he is  0-1 with a 9.31 ERA and a 1.759 WHIP.

Now he will face one of the most dangerous offenses in the league. The Red Sox are tops in batting average at .261 and are first in hits, fourth in RBI, and sixth in runs. Boston is averaging 4.78 runs per game, and it has six players with 30 or more RBI. 

Alex Verdugo is on a 10-game hitting streak and has two home runs and 10 RBI in those games. 

The Cubs are facing longtime veteran Rich Hill, who has an ERA of 4.09. The Cubs are 10th in batting average and are 14th in both runs and RBI, while averaging 4.30 runs per game. 

Hill has four games this season where he has allowed four or more runs. The last time was June 16, when the lowly Oakland Athletics got four runs in 5 2-3 innings. 

In the Cubs’ last seven games, they have scored four or more runs four times. The Red Sox have scored four or more runs in eight of their last 10 games. 

The Red Sox have hit the Over in four of their last six games following an off day and have hit the Over in five of their last seven of the first game of a series. 

Chicago has hit the Over four of its last four home games against a left-handed starter and the Over is 13-6 in the Cubs' last 19 against the American League East. 

Prediction: Over 9.0 (-110 at Caesars)

Best bet

Red Sox left fielder Alex Verdugo has been on an absolute tear lately. The 26-year-old is currently enjoying a 10-game hitting streak.

The difference between Verdugo’s performance in June as opposed to April and May is staggering. In April, Verdugo’s batting average was .238 with 19 hits, five runs, and 13 RBI. In May, his line was .219, with 21 hits, 11 runs, and 11 RBI. 

Then June came, and Verdugo went nuts. He batted .337 and had 32 hits, 17 runs, and 19 RBI. In Verdugo’s last 10 games he has had 10 RBI. 

Now, he gets to face a pitcher that has struggled against the Red Sox and he must be licking his chops. 

Look for Verdugo to get at least one RBI, possibly more. 

Pick: Alex Verdugo Over 0.5 RBI (+180)

MLB parlays

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