With more eyes hitting the NFL season, MLB player props might be holding more value at this time of the year than a month ago. With that said, I’m digging into every baseball market and hunting for value. The new Covers player prop page is also a great new tool for finding gems.
Today, we’re backing a starting pitcher with a small sample size and double-dipping at Great American Ballpark.
MLB props for August 30
Picks made on 8/30/2022 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best MLB prop bets
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Strategic Manning
Detroit Tigers starter Matt Manning missed the majority of the season but the young right-hander has dominated since his return. He’s made five August starts since coming back and has gone six-plus innings while allowing one or fewer runs in three of them.
He currently sports an impressive 2.37 ERA and is coming off a masterful start where he had a season-high eight strikeouts vs. the Giants and didn’t walk a batter. He also finished that game with an elite 40% CSW.
Last four starts for Matt Manning:
— Evan Woodbery (@evanwoodbery) August 24, 2022
25 IP
5 BB
26 K
1 HR
1.80 ERA
He finishes six scoreless innings on Wednesday by striking out the side in the 6th.
Despite the swing-and-miss stuff in his last turn, Manning is a pitcher with a career K/9 of 6.43 but he's efficient and can get deep into starts. Today, he’ll take on the Mariners at home where his splits certainly favor him with a 3.62 ERA and a .228 opponent batting average at home compared to a 6.47 ERA and a .322 AVG on the road for his career.
You can find +110 odds for Manning to get through six innings tonight, which is something the right-hander has done in three of his last four as he is back to full health after missing over three months of action to open the year. He should be good for 95 to 100 pitches today and has a surprisingly good defensive team behind him.
Matt Manning Prop: Over 17.5 total outs (+110)
Done with Dunn
Great American Ballpark will be even tougher for pitchers today with winds blowing out as Ballpark Pal has it as the best home run park on the board and the second-best hitter-friendly environment. That’s bad news for Cincinnati starting pitcher Justin Dunn, who also has to deal with the hard-hitting Cardinals.
Dunn has made four starts this year and owns a 5.12 ERA with a hearty 1.50 WHIP. He lasted just 11 outs in his only start at GABP and gave up five runs to the Cubs.
THE BAT has him projected for just 77 pitches, 12.9 outs, and 3.30 strikeouts. He’ll also have hitter-friendly umpire Junior Valentine behind the plate.
The Cardinals are cruising offensively. They are striking out at just 18% over the last 30 days, which is the third-best mark in baseball. They’ve also launched 50 home runs over that stretch, nine more than the next best team. Their 149 wRC+ is also tops in the league.
How good as the Cardinals offense been this month? Per the #STLCards game notes, STL has four of the NL's top 5 batting averages in Aug.
— Katie Woo (@katiejwoo) August 30, 2022
NYM's Jeff McNeil leads with .402. The rest?
Albert Pujols (.400)
Brendan Donovan (.385)
Paul Goldschmidt (.374)
Nolan Arenado (.366)
With a tough opponent and very difficult pitching conditions, we’re hitting the Dunn Under 4.5 strikeouts and laying the juice at -160 with some books already on the 3.5.
Justin Dunn Prop: Under 4.5 strikeouts (-160 at BetMGM)
In an O’Neill world
We’re sticking with the Cardinals vs. Reds and backing the hot stick of St. Louis’ Tyler O’Neill.
The Canadian has seven hits over his last 22 at-bats and five of those have left the ballpark. He's seeing the ball well right now, which is confirmed by his 20% walk rate over the last week. He also had the game-winning home run on Sunday and followed that up with two more long balls yesterday at Great American Ballpark.
Why hit one home run when you can hit 2???!
— Bally Sports (@BallySports) August 30, 2022
Tyler O'Neil goes deep for the second time tonight! ????
(via @BallySportsMW)pic.twitter.com/kq8Cfis7Nh
O’Neill will have ideal hitting conditions today and faces Reds starter Justin Dunn who has a .597 slugging percentage against on the season and has allowed six home runs over 19-plus innings this season. Dunn gets barreled at nearly double the league average and his hard-hit percentage is nine points higher than the league average.
If O’Neill barrels up the ball today, it’s going far and coming off the bat hot. I’m hitting his total bases market and the plus money it’s offering.
Tyler O'Neill Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+115)
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