Today’s MLB Prop Picks: Burnes Continues Cy Young Bid

Saturday features a great schedule in baseball and we'll be backing three stars to remain hot, including Milwaukee Brewers ace Corbin Burnes to go Under his earned run total. Find out more in our daily MLB prop picks.

Last Updated: Aug 13, 2022 2:26 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Corbin Burnes Milwaukee Brewers MLB
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We've got a terrific slate of baseball games this Saturday, with several of the best pitchers in the game taking to the mound. Although the MLB prop betting numbers on Jacob deGrom and Shane McClanahan seem a tad too steep, we do like some of the odds available for Aaron Nola and Corbin Burnes. 

In addition to a pair of plays on those stud starters, we're also backing Juan Soto as he returns to his former stomping grounds in Washington.

Here are our best MLB player prop bets for Saturday, August 13.

MLB props for August 13

Picks made on 8/13/2022 at 1:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Today’s best MLB prop bets

The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.

No Free Passes

All eyes might be on the incredible Jacob deGrom today as the Mets host the Phillies, but Philadelphia has a pretty good pitcher of its own on the mound. Aaron Nola will toe the rubber for the Phillies, and he has pitched to a 3.17 ERA, with a 0.95 WHIP and an incredible 7.9 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 144 2-3 innings this year. 

Nola's control has been the most impressive aspect of his game this season, with the right-hander boasting the second-best walk percentage in the majors (3.6%). He's coming off a start against the Nationals, where he pitched very well but walked two batters. However, that's just the fourth time in 22 starts this season that he has issued more than one free pass.

The Mets have a lineup that does a good job of making contact, but they rank near the middle of the majors when it comes to plate discipline and walk rate.

Umpire Marty Foster will also be behind home plate in this matchup. His 11 games this season have seen just 5.5 walks, significantly lower than the MLB average of 6.15.

Aaron Nola Prop: Under 1.5 walks given (-110)

Return of the Mash

Juan Soto returned to Washington last night for the first time since being traded to the Padres, and he came away with two hits, including a double. After a slower start to the season, the 23-year-old phenom has been heating up and is slashing .342/.509/.625 over his last 38 games.

While San Diego was dealt a blow with the suspension of Fernando Tatis Jr., Soto will be protected in a lineup that includes Manny Machado and Josh Bell. 

The left-handed hitter has a history of crushing the ball against righties, and the Nats will send struggling righthander Anibal Sanchez to the mound today.

The 38-year-old Sanchez missed all of the 2021 season and began this year on the 60-day IL with a neck injury. He joined the rotation in the middle of July and has been beyond awful, pitching to a 7.56 ERA with a 1.56 WHIP, with opposing batters slugging .561 against him. 

The Nats also have a brutal bullpen, with their relievers ranked 24th in the majors in ERA (4.35) and 25th in WHIP (1.35). Expect another big game from Soto and take Over 1.5 on his total bases.

Juan Soto Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+120 at bet365)

Apply Water to Burnes

The Cardinals are the hottest hitting team, but Brewers starter Corbin Burnes has the stuff to pour water on those flames. The Brewers right-hander has been one of the best pitchers in the majors since the start of the 2020 season, pitching to a 2.38 ERA with a 0.95 WHIP, 2.26 FIP, and 12.3 strikeouts per nine innings. 

He's been even against the Cardinals, pitching to a 1.00 ERA with a 0.72 WHIP in six starts against Milwaukee's NL Central rivals.

Despite sitting fifth in the majors with an OPS of .741, the Cards are 15th in barrel rate and just 23rd in hard-hit rate. Those analytics suggest that they might be due for some regression, especially against a pitcher of Burnes' caliber. 

The O/U for Burnes' earned runs total today is set at 2.5, a number he has gone below in 16 of his last 21 starts — including a pair of starts against the Cards where he didn't allow a single run. The Under is juiced to -175, but I like this play enough to put two units on it.

Corbin Burnes Prop: Under 2.5 earned runs (-175 at DraftKings)

MLB parlay

Did you know that if you played today’s MLB props as a parlay, you could win $56.00 on a $10 bet?

Use our MLB parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

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