The MLB season is upon us, and with it, all the betting markets that we’ve come to love/hate. This article will try to find the MLB’s best props and side bets for the day and does all the heavy lifting so you don’t have to. If there’s a line on it, we’ll look into it.
Today’s props are hitting the deGrom gong, begrudgingly riding the Astros’ hot start and avoiding a pair of bullpens in Tampa with a first-five play.
Check out our favorite MLB free prop bet picks and predictions for Saturday, April 10.
Today’s MLB props and picks
Miami vs New York Mets F5 Under 4 (-127)
Before there was Bieber Fever, there was deGrom Day. Two-time NL Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom has been a staple in the F5 Under community and is a near-automatic F5 Under play.
deGrom will make his second start of the season Saturday after tossing six scoreless innings in his first go-around. The first five Under cashed easily as the Mets' offense failed to support their ace yet again.
The New York right-hander gets to cruise through a 1-6 SU Marlins lineup that is scoring just 3.17 runs per game, good for 27th-best in baseball.
Over his career at Citi Field, deGrom is holding opponents to a .555 OPS and owns a 2.19 ERA along with a mesmerizing 0.973 WHIP.
Opposing deGrom will be the Marlins lefty, Trevor Rogers. Rogers has great swing-and-miss stuff with a 12.9 K/9 over his short MLB career and will only last four of five innings as his pitch count heads north quickly. Rogers got in trouble early in his first start but settled down in a game that finished 4-1.
The Mets’ offense has been average to begin the year and managed five runs over its last two games before taking Friday off. With the New York bats not carrying a ton of confidence and deGrom on the bump, we’re hitting the gong and taking the first five Under 4 (-127).
Houston Astros team total Over 4.5 (-115)
We hate to say it, but it looks like the Astros are using everyone’s hate as motivation this season, and sadly, it seems to be working. The ‘Stros have begun the season 6-2 SU and their hot bats (7.5 runs per game 10.1 hits per game) get to face the inconsistent Frankie Montas and the 2-7 SU Athletics on Saturday.
Montas is coming off a dreadful start that saw the career 4.40 ERA pitcher give up seven runs over 2.1 innings — he also walked three. On top of Montas’ poor results, he's also trying to work through a torn cuticle on his throwing hand. It could be the type of injury that shuts the right-hander down with one more awful start.
Heading into the series, Houston had six regular players who were batting .300 or better. One-through-seven, the Astros are raking and get to face a get-away team, as Oakland will hit the road following Saturday’s match.
Houston has already played the A’s six times this season and is 5-1 O/U on team totals of 4.5.
New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay F5 Over 4.5 (-106)
The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Over in six straight games including a 10-5 win versus the Yankees on Friday that included 13 runs in the first five innings.
The Rays’ starters own a 4.54 ERA on the season, which is the 22nd-worst mark in the league. On Saturday, they will start Chris Archer, who has yet to start a game this year.
Archer is dealing with some velocity issues, as his fastball has dropped three miles per hour from last year. Velocity issues are great news for a Yankees lineup that will be looking to tag Archer early before having to see the Tampa bullpen.
The Rays are also in a similar situation offensively. They get to tee-off on Domingo German, who gave up plenty of hard contact in his first start last week, his first action since September 18, 2019. German is going through a lot after receiving an 81-game suspension for domestic violence last year and, combined with his poor results on the mound, is a great pitcher to fade.
This matchup is a perfect example of the value of the first-five total. The Yankees have the league’s third-best bullpen ERA, and while the Rays’ relievers haven’t been great this year, their A-bullpen is still legit, and a unit you don’t want to see when holding a full-game Over. Hitting the first five Over 4.5 (-106) let us focus on an exploitable starting pitching match-up.
Yesterday's MLB record: 2-1, +0.68 units
Season MLB betting record: 13-15, -3.50 units
MLB betting card for April 10
- Miami vs New York Mets first five Under 4 (-127)
- Houston Astros team total Over 4.5 (-115)
- New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay F5 Over 4.5 (-106)
MLB parlays
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Where can I bet on MLB props?
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