There are only eight games on the MLB odds board this Monday, and with one of those matchups an early doubleheader, that means even fewer player props for us to dip into tonight.
However, there's still plenty of value to be had, as we love a favorable matchup for MLB's hottest hitter in Matt Chapman. We're also backing Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez, and expecting a solid (albeit perhaps brief) performance from Dodgers starter Tony Gonsolin.
Here are our best free MLB player prop picks for May 1.
MLB props for May 1
Picks made on 5/1/2023 at 10:20 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Best MLB bonuses
Looking to bet on some MLB action? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users at FanDuel can bet $5 and get $150 in bonus bets! Sign Up Now
B) Get a profit boost up to 100% on one MLB same-game parlay at DraftKings! Opt-in Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of best promo codes for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Best MLB bets today
Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
Prop bet #1: Welcome Matt
Blue Jays third baseman Matt Chapman has been on fire this season, and is on pace for an even better year than in 2019, when he slugged 36 home runs.
His five home runs in 27 games aren't eye-opening, but he's also batting .387 with 15 doubles, leading to an MLB-best .687 slugging percentage. While that number is unsustainable long-term, the fact that he also leads the majors in hard-hit rate, barrel rate, and average exit velocity suggests that his success isn't due to luck.
Chapman and the Jays are facing off against the Red Sox at Fenway tonight. Boston is sending Corey Kluber to the mound, and Chapman has his number. He's gone a perfect 5-for-5 at the dish versus Kluber in his career with two homers and a pair of doubles.
Matt Chapman Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (-105)
Prop bet #2: We have liftoff
While Chapman is near the top of the majors in every hitting metric this year, Houston's Yordan Alvarez was that guy last season. The Astros outfielder was second in the majors behind Aaron Judge in slugging percentage (.613), hard-hit rate, barrel rate, and average exit velocity in 2022.
He hasn't been quite as dominant this year, but still leads the 'Stros with a .543 slugging percentage through 22 games. Alvarez has been dealing with a neck injury that kept him out of four games last week, but he returned to the lineup over the weekend and went 3-for-6 in a pair of games versus the Phillies.
He should have success today against San Francisco's struggling pitching staff. The Giants are starting Ross Stripling, who has a 6.89 ERA with an OBA of .303 in 15 2/3 innings this season.
Stripling also works out of the bullpen, and he isn't an innings-eater when he does start, which means we should see plenty of San Fran's relievers. Considering that the Giants' bullpen is 28th in the majors in ERA (6.15) and WHIP (1.52), Alvarez should be due for a big day.
Yordan Alvarez Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+100)
Prop bet #3: Gonsolin's still got it
Tony Gonsolin enjoyed a breakout season with the Dodgers last year, going 16-1 with a 2.14 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP in 24 starts. However, the right-hander missed most of April due to an ankle injury, and only made his season debut against the Pirates last Wednesday.
He looked shaky in that outing and walked three batters, but he also didn't allow a run before getting the hook midway through the third inning. He should have improved location today, and while he will probably still be on a pitch count, that just makes it more likely that he'll go Under his earned runs total.
Gonsolin goes against a Phillies team that hasn't been consistently plating runs this year due to an OPS of just .653 with runners in scoring position.
Tony Gonsolin Prop: Under 1.5 earned runs (+120)
