A new week of MLB action gets underway with 10 games on the diamond for hungry baseball bettors to dive into... that means there's no shortage of MLB player props.
Today, I take a look at a trio of players who have been as hot as the month of July: the Twins’ Carlos Correa, the Astros’ Kyle Tucker, and the Brewers’ Christian Yelich. However, I only like two of them to keep tearing the cover off the ball in tonight’s matchups.
Find out who we're fading in my best MLB player prop picks for Monday, July 24 below.
MLB props for July 24
- Correa Under 0.5 hits
- Tucker Over 1.5 total bases
- Yelich Over 1.5 total bases
Picks made on July 24 at 1:30 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Prop bet #1: Castillo cools down Correa
The Minnesota Twins have come out of the break playing pretty good baseball, going 8-2 in the second half thus far.
Now, playing the White Sox and A’s certainly helps, but the Twins bats, including that of Carlos Correa, have been a little more consistent of late and that's been a big help as well.
Correa has been solid in the month of July, hitting nearly .300, but he was struggling so much beforehand that his average heading into tonight’s game vs. Luis Castillo and the Seattle Mariners is just .232. And he won’t be happy to see Castillo.
The right-hander is one of the American League’s best pitchers with a 3.80 expected ERA while sitting in the 77th percentile in strikeout-rate. This is the second straight start the Mariners’ right-hander will make against the Twins.
A pair of solo shots cost Castillo in that game and he ended up allowing three runs on six hits while striking out 11 over six innings of work.
Castillo also had Correa in knots in that contest, going 0-3 with a strikeout. Then he has to deal with a Seattle bullpen that ranks first in MLB in xFIP and third in strikeouts per nine.
Overall, Correa ranks in the 36th percentile in expected batting average and the 47th in K-rate. This is a bad matchup for him and at +190, this looks like a great value to have an 0-fer night at the dish.
Carlos Correa prop: Under 0.5 hits (+190)
Prop bet #2: Can't stop Kyle
There aren’t many players on the planet hotter at the plate than Kyle Tucker. The Houston Astros’ outfielder leads his team into a huge series with the AL West-leading Texas Rangers, who hold a three-game lead on the Astros in the division.
Tucker has been absolutely locked in, hitting .382 with a 1.213 OPS which includes 13 extra-base hits over 18 games in the month of July. Since coming out of the All-Star break, he's on a nine-game hitting streak, good for a .429 average and 1.414 OPS with nine extra-base hits... just silly stuff.
He’s so locked in that I like him to bust out of a hitless streak against Rangers starter Jon Gray. Yup, Tucker doesn’t have a hit in his career vs. Gray, but with his total bases sitting at +115 to the Over, it’s worth backing him to change that.
Gray has been solid for the Rangers this season with a 3.31 ERA, but the advanced numbers say a regression is on the horizon and I think we're starting to see it.
Gray’s FIP is 4.47 and his expected ERA is 4.43 and he’s been getting hit hard and often lately. Gray’s ERA bumps up to 5.76 over his last six starts while surrendering a .322 batting average and a .859 OPS over that stretch.
He's also averaged 80 pitches per start in those games, which could mean extended work for a Rangers bullpen that — while improved since acquiring Aroldis Chapman — still ranks 22nd in xFIP and strikeouts per nine.
I’m backing Tucker to keep raking and go Over his total bases for the seventh time in 10 games.
Kyle Tucker prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+115)
Prop bet #3: Christian rakes against Cincy
The Milwaukee Brewers have clawed their way back into first place in the NL Central and a big reason has been the play of Christian Yelich.
The Brewers outfielder has re-found that old magic that helped him secure the 2018 NL MVP Award. He's been on fire since the end of June, hitting .347 with a 1.062 OPS which includes 13 extra-base hits and just 10 strikeouts over his last 18 games.
The Brew Crew are hoping Yelich can keep that going as they open a massive series with the Cincinnati Reds — who trail Milwaukee by just a half-game in the NL Central — and I like Yelich’s chances of doing just that.
That’s in part because Cincinnati hands the ball to Graham Ashcraft. The 25-year-old right-hander has seen his share of highs and lows this season. He's strung together some good starts, but you can make the case he’s been a little lucky. Despite pitching to a 1.82 ERA in his last four starts, his FIP is 4.54 in those contests.
Overall, Ashcraft is pitching to a 5.42 expected ERA, while surrendering a .285 expected batting average. He also ranks in the seventh percentile in K-rate and pitching to contact to a guy who is locked in like Yelich could mean trouble.
Yelich is also 3-14 in his career vs. Ashcraft but his xBA sits at .305 in those at-bats. And when Ashcraft hands off the ball, it will be to a bullpen that ranks 28th in xFIP and 23rd in strikeouts per nine innings.
With Yelich also hitting .306 with a .919 OPS vs. right-handers for the season, I like him to go Over 1.5 total bases for the seventh time in his last nine.
Christian Yelich prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+130)
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