Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Braves Keep Offense Rolling in Colorado

With a full slate of MLB games to choose from our MLB player props take you on journey across the country from Baltimore to Colorado in search of value. Hop on board as we break down who we like and why in today's edition of MLB player props.

Chris Hatfield - Betting Analyst at
Chris Hatfield • Betting Analyst
Aug 28, 2023 • 13:43 ET • 4 min read
Matt Olson Atlanta Braves MLB
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We're back to the work week but also back with a fresh slate of MLB props to comb through.

Today, we're looking for the best value in a small slate in three places. We are headed to Kansas City to target a veteran pitcher with an unlikely prop. Then we're going to Baltimore to grab one of the Bird's best young hitters at a plus-money price. Lastly, we'll round things off with one of the Atlanta Braves power bats to go deep.

Jump in for the ride through today's value as we review today's MLB odds and give you the best MLB player prop picks on Monday, August 28

MLB props for August 28

  • Greinke Over 2.5 strikeouts
  • Henderson Over 1.5 total bases
  • Olson to hit a home run

Picks made on August 28 at 1:45 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.

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Best MLB bets today

Prop bet #1: Zack Attack

You'd be hard-pressed to find a strikeout total that's less than three, but that's what we have here today. I priced this at -230, which is a considerable edge. Having some humility in your numbers is a significant part of sports betting, and with that said, the advantage is not that vast. However, this is one I can't turn down. 

This total is low for a reason, given Zack Greinke's edge, his abhorrent K rate, and just how much he gets hit around typically in his starts. With that said, he's gone Over this number for three consecutive starts, and the matchup tonight is decent. 

As the Pittsburgh Pirates play out the string of their season, they have rotated the lineup more than usual. Sometimes, that's to experiment, sometimes to get younger faces some playing time in what are essentially useless games. What it's resulted in lately is an uptick in strikeouts. Over the last three games, Pittsburgh has seen its strikeout total jump from 8.92 per game to 10.62, including 12 last time out. I'm backing two trends to continue because there is little reason to suggest they should change. 

Zack Greinke prop: Over 2.5 strikeouts (-118 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #2: Gunnar Doesn't Stahl

Gunnar Henderson has gone Over this number in five of his last 10 games. With that in mind, from a raw number perspective, there is simple value here. That's not the only reason I'm rolling with this tonight. The matchup is a solid one. 

Michael Kopech will take the mound for the Chicago White Sox tonight, and he's been relatively poor throughout this season. Highlighting his issues has been mostly anything that's indicated giving him hard contact. His barrel rate stands out the most, sitting in the bottom 1% of baseball.

That's music to the ears of Henderson. He's got the second-highest barrel on the O's, the highest exit velocity, and the highest average hard-hit rate. Along with smacking the baseball against a pitcher who gives up hard contact, Henderson will likely see some pitches he hits well. Kopech is a heavy fastball pitcher, throwing it around 70% of the time. Luckily for Henderson, he's one of the best fastball hitters on the roster. He'll enter this game with the highest hard-hit rating on the O's roster against it (among qualified hitters). This sets up well tonight for Henderson, and we'll happily take him plus money. 

Gunnar Henderson prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+115 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Touch Em' All, Matt

One of my favorite things to do all season is to bet on Atlanta Braves players when they are facing a pitcher who throws the fastball at a high clip. Tonight, we get that when Atlanta travels to Colorado. 

Austin Gomber will take the mound for the Rockies, and he's thrown the four-seam fastball at around a 48% clip this summer. That opened my eyes in a big way when I saw this Braves team come to town. 

Not only is it the best offense in baseball from both a run-produced perspective and a pure power perspective, but it also has a historical pace against the fastball this season. The best of those fastball hitters is Olson, who leads his team in hard-hit rate against that pitch this season at 68%. If it weren't for someone named Ronald Acuna, he'd likely be your National League MVP. This one is straightforward. Gomber throws a lot of fastballs and gives up a lot of hard contact. Olson hits a lot of fastballs and hits them very hard. It also doesn't hurt that this game is being played in the elevation of Colorado, and we know how balls travel there. 

Matt Olson prop: Hit a home run (+235 at FanDuel)

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