It’s the first getaway day of the 2023 MLB season, which means there is baseball to bet on all day long. And even though there are just six games on the board there is plenty of value to be found in the MLB player props market.
Today, we take a look at the red-hot Matt Chapman, who is just crushing the ball to start the season. The White Sox, who still crush lefties, will dig in against Giants’ southpaw Alex Wood in his debut season, and it feels like Merrill Kelly got the short end of the stick having to make his first two starts of the season against the Dodgers.
Here are my best MLB player prop picks for Thursday, April 6.
MLB props for April 6
Picks made on 4/6/2023 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Best MLB bets today
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Prop bet #1: Chappy On Fire
Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Matt Chapman may not have hit the Over on his total bases prop in last night’s game against the Kansas City Royals, but I’m not ready to say that his hot streak is over heading into this afternoon’s series finale.
Chapman went 1-for-4 with a single on Wednesday night, "plummeting" his batting average and OPS to .522 and 1.299 respectively. More importantly, Chapman was still knocking the cover off the ball. He made hard contact in three of his four at-bats last night, including a rocket off his bat in the top of the first which ended up as just a long flyout but would have been a home run in a lot of parks.
Simply put, Chapman is locked in to start the season. He has 12 hits in 25 plate appearances with five doubles and has multi-hit games in four of the team’s first six contests. He also has a very good expected slugging percentage of .680 heading into today’s game against the Royals.
Speaking of Kansas City, it will hand the ball to Jordan Lyles. The veteran right-hander was solid in his Royals debut, but today he goes against a Blue Jays' lineup that is very familiar with his stuff as he was a member of the Orioles last season.
And surprise, surprise, Chapman has been a thorn in Lyles’ side. Chapman is a career 9-for-21 (.429) with a double and five, count ‘em, five dingers when facing off against Lyles. His expected slugging percentage is a ridiculous .915 in this matchup.
We’re riding the hot hand with Chappy and taking the Over on his total bases.
Matt Chapman Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+110)
Prop bet #2: Worn down Wood
The Chicago White Sox mash lefties. That has been a statement of fact over the last few seasons, and with the likes of Tim Anderson, Luis Robert Jr., and Yoan Moncada all getting off to good starts, it looks like that narrative won’t be changing anytime soon.
The Pale Hose, who ranked second in batting average and seventh in OPS vs. lefties last season, will go for the series win in their rubber match against the San Francisco Giants on Thursday afternoon. And wouldn’t you know it, they’ll be facing a left-hander.
The Giants will hand the ball to Alex Wood for this matchup who will be making his first start of the season. Wood is coming off a season where he pitched to a 5.10 ERA and gave up a .262 batting average to opponents, and those numbers are somehow worse against righties, getting smashed for a .283 average and a .800 OPS.
Wood also surrendered three or more earned runs in half of his 26 starts last season, and with the White Sox's trio of Anderson, Robert, and Moncada hitting for a .355 average and a .995 OPS, I’m betting they get the better of Wood in this matchup.
Alex Wood Prop: Over 2.5 earned runs (+120)
Prop bet #3: Mega Max
Merrill Kelly must have looked at the schedule to start the season and said, “You’ve got to be kidding me.” The Arizona Diamondbacks starter will make his second-consecutive start against the Los Angeles Dodgers on Thursday night.
To be fair, the Dodgers are tough on most pitchers, but they have been particularly tough on Kelly during his career. The D-backs right-hander has an 0-9 record with a 5.64 ERA in 13 career starts vs. L.A. Now, he didn’t give up an earned run in his last start, but three hits and four walks limited his appearance to just 3 2/3 innings.
The L.A. player who has given Kelly the most trouble has been Max Muncy. The Dodgers' infielder is 12-for-28 (.429) with three doubles and a dinger in his career against Kelly.
It’s been a bit of a slow start for Muncy this season — going just 3-for-20 with a home run — but one of those hits came against Kelly of course. I’m betting this matchup with Kelly is just what Muncy needs to get back on track, and I’m taking the Over on his total bases prop at solid plus money.
Max Muncy Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+120)
