Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Pete Punches One In

The weather might not be that warm on a get-away day for many, but there’s a lot of value on the board today in a full MLB slate.

Today, I’m fading a pitcher vs. a perceived bad team in Oakland, betting against a pitcher who was nearly perfect in his last start, and backing a solid RBI price for one of the best run-producers in baseball.

Here are my three best MLB player prop picks for Wednesday, April 26. 

MLB props for April 26

• Sandoval Under 17.5 outs
• Smyly Over 2.5 earned runs
• Alonso Over 0.5 RBI

Picks made on 4/26/2023 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Best MLB bets today

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Value in a reputation

Patrick Sandoval has completed 18 outs in just one of his four starts this season. Walks are driving up his pitch count as he has 12 free passes over 18.1 innings of work, and despite an easy matchup vs. Oakland, I like the big plus money on his Under 17.5 outs.

The L.A. lefty sits in the bottom 15% of the league in BB%, and although he isn’t giving up much hard contact, he’s using 4.21 pitches per plate appearance, which projects to over 100 pitches over six innings at four batters per inning. Considering his WHIP is 1.46, that's a modest projection leaving lots of room for the Under to come in. He also has thrown more than 93 pitches this season.

He’s throwing strikes at a 60% rate, which is low, and despite a poor record, the Oakland offense is average at pitches per plate appearance, sits in the middle of the league in wRC+, and handles itself well vs. left-handed pitching.

Oakland currently ranks eighth in wOBA, fifth in wRC+, and eighth in OPS vs. lefties. Because of the reputation the Athletics have, it’s creating some value on Sondoval’s Under 17.5 outs, which is great at the current price and likely worth a bet to +120. 

Patrick Sandoval Prop: Under 17.5 outs (+159)

San Diego Smyl

Drew Smyly was locked in over his last start, throwing seven perfect innings before losing the perfect-game bid in the eighth inning. It’s safe to say with a 3.13 ERA and a sub-1.00 WHIP, the lefty is pitching above expectations, as THE BAT has him as a 5.07 ERA pitcher this season. He currently has a .241 BABIP and an xFIP, nearly 1.00 point higher than his actual FIP.

Today, he faces a loaded Padres lineup that, despite being shut out last night, is due for some positive progression — especially at the top of the order with Fernando Tatis, Juan Soto, and Manny Machado all hitting under .215.

THE BAT has him projected for 2.96 earned runs today at Wrigley, which will be cold (high-40s), but that could also affect his grip on his curveball, which he throws the most of his three pitches. If he can’t locate that curveball or leaves them up, that's an advantage for the Padres, who have better offensive numbers vs. lefties. 

Following a near-perfect game, it’s time to fade Smyly, who has a tough matchup and could have issues with his heavily-used breaking pitches in the colder weather.

Drew Smyly Prop: Over 2.5 earned runs (+115)

For Pete's sake

Getting clean-up hitters to collect an RBI at +170 is never a bad play. When that hitter is Pete Alonso and the Mets are a -220 favorite vs. the Nationals, it’s a great play.

Alonso’s RBI market has been as low as +125 this season and today looks like a great day to play this on price alone. He leads the team with 23 RBI through 24 games and sits fifth in the league in that category. He’s also producing runs with guys like Francisco Lindor and Starling Marte both hitting under .225 in front of him. 

Leadoff hitter Brandon Nimmo is getting on base at a .456 clip, which is a Top-5 rate in baseball. Marte can swipe bags and get into scoring position while Lindor’s numbers should be on the rise after a slow start. There are a lot of outs for Alonso to get to the plate with runners in scoring position.

MacKenzie Gore will face this Mets offense, and although he comes in with a 3.34 ERA, every other projection has the left-hander as a mid-4.00 ERA pitcher this season. 

Alonso has an RBI in exactly half of his 24 games this year with multi-RBI performances in five of those. He’s also mashing left-handed pitching, slashing .333/.429/.867 with five home runs and nine RBI across 35 plate appearances against southpaws.  

Pete Alonso Prop: Over 0.5 RBI (+170)

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