Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Steele Finds Big Success Against Oakland

I'm back again to highlight some more MLB player props for this afternoon and taking a good look at some decent plus-money plays today as I look into the total-bases market, pitcher total outs, and using pinch-hit risk to hit an Under on a player who could see fewer at bats.

Here are my three best MLB prop picks for Wednesday, April 19.

MLB props for April 19

• Riley Over 1.5 TB
• Steele Over 18.5 outs
• Wiemer Under 0.5 hits

Picks made on 4/19/2023 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Best MLB bets today

Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.

Prop bet #1: Austin limits

The Atlanta bats have a decent matchup vs. San Diego’s Nick Martinez, who has seen some velocity drop in his sinker, has a .296 xAVG against, and could see a rise in his flyball rates going forward.

Martinez has a 1.4 mph drop in his sinker from last season and he throws it 24% of the time. He also has a 56% groundball rate which is nine points higher than his career average. He pitches to contact but also sits in the bottom-25% of the league in xAVG, xSLG, BB rate, K rate, and barrel rate. He is, at best, an average MLB starter and faces a tough opponent in Austin Riley and the Atlanta Braves.

Riley is hitting third in a loaded lineup and is 2-for-4 vs. Martinez in limited ABs over his career. He has been dealing with some strikeout issues but facing a low K rate pitcher in Martinez should help the contact problems.

When he does get balls in play, he’s getting on base with a .372 BABIP. He’s also hitting at least .294 vs. fastballs, breaking balls, and offspeed pitches, so there is no real weakness in his approach. So far, just six of his 20 hits have gone for extra bases this season after 47% of his hits a season ago went for at least two bags.

Price is a big point here too as bet365 has his Over 1.5 total bases at +155 while FanDuel is at -110. The fair price is closer to +130.   

Austin Riley Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+155)

Prop bet #2: Man of Steele

Chicago Cubs pitcher Justin Steele has gone at least 18 outs in all three of his starts this season and is fresh off a 21-out, 101-pitch performance vs. the Dodgers. Now he gets a cupcake matchup vs. the Athletics in a pitcher-friendly environment, with an Over 18.5 out prop that is a juicy +160.

THE BAT is projecting 99 pitches for Steele and 18 total outs. Facing the light-hitting A’s, there's a very good chance he can keep his pitch count low to come out in the seventh inning. Oakland sits in the bottom 5 in AVG and SLG and also sits in the top half of the league in K percentage. Additionally, Steele could see an even worse Oakland line thanks to a West Coast afternoon start time. 

Teams are hitting just .210 vs. Steele who has played some decent offenses in Milwaukee, Texas, and the Dodgers. His slider — which he throws 35% of the time — has a 0.040 batting average against and some of the most horizontal movement in all of baseball. Only three other teams have a worse ISO vs. lefties than Oakland.

Even with a projection below the total, getting this at +160 in a matchup that is also a getaway game for the A’s is a Steele.

Justin Steele Prop: Over 18.5 outs (+160 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: We have a Wiemner

One edge MLB prop bettors can use is identifying platoon players who likely won’t see all their plate appearances as they usually get pinch hit for.

Milwaukee Brewers' Joey Wiemer hits in the ninth spot in the lineup, is hitting .173 on the season, and hits left-handed pitching better than RHP. He's a pinch-hit risk tonight with a lefty starting for Seattle. 

The rookie outfielder has just one hit in his last eight games started and is struggling vs. big-league pitching in his first run with the Brewers. His 84.5 mph average exit velocity also ranks in the Bottom 5% of baseball. 

With more tape on the rookie pitcher, teams are likely noticing the prospect’s issues with non fastballs as he is 0-for-26 vs. offspeed and breaking pitches this season, with a .346 average vs. fastballs.

With a heater sitting in the high-80s, Seattle starter Marco Gonzalez will likely feed Wiemer a steady diet of breaking and offspeed pitches before the outfielder is hopefully pulled for a pinch hitter. THE BAT X is projecting 3.4 plate appearances with a 33% pinch-hit risk. 

Joey Wiemer Prop: Under 0.5 total hits (+125 at bet365)

Pages related to this topic