Another new week of Major League Baseball action gets underway with a big 14-game slate oozing with MLB player props for hungry baseball bettors to dig into.
Nothing makes today better than the fact that it’s Fade Patrick Corbin Day! The Nationals’ running gag version of a starting pitcher takes the ball against a red-hot Angels lineup, so what’s the best way to fade Corbin? Plus, we kind of fade Sandy Alcantara against the Phillies — but not really — and we ride Corey Seager, who is starting to swing a hot stick for the Rangers.
Here are my best MLB picks in the player prop market for Monday, April 10.
MLB props for April 10
Picks made on 4/10/2023 at 1:20 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Best MLB bets today
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Prop bet #1: Plenty of chances
Sandy Alcantara has picked up right where he left off last season. The reigning National League Cy Young Award winner is coming off a complete-game shutout of the Minnesota Twins where he allowed just three hits in his last start. I’m expecting another long outing for Alcantara tonight when he takes the ball against the Philadelphia Phillies, and that’s why I’m betting on Alcantara to go Over his hits-allowed prop.
This is not a shot against the righty at all, It’s just the reality that he pitches deep into almost every ball game he starts, and it’s giving a little respect to a solid Phillies lineup.
Alcantara averaged just a touch over 7 1/3 innings pitched per game last season, and that was the story against Philadelphia. Alcantara made a whopping six starts against the Phillies last season and pitched into the seventh five times.
But as noted, Philly has a solid lineup, now with Trea Turner hitting leadoff. And while Alcantara didn’t get tagged for a lot of runs in this matchup, he gave up six or more hits five times over those six starts. So far this season, the Phillies rank ninth in batting average and 11th in OPS when facing right-handed pitching.
As I said, I’m not saying Philadelphia will knock him around, but Alcantara will pitch deep enough into this ball game against a quality opponent to hit the Over on this bet.
Sandy Alcantara Prop: Over 5.5 hits allowed (-115)
Prop bet #2: Seager stays slamming
Texas Rangers shortstop Corey Seager is having a so-so start to the season with the bat, but things could quickly heat up for him when he digs into the box tonight when they host Zack Greinke and the Kansas City Royals.
Seager is hitting a meager .273 to start the season and has yet to go deep, but it looks like things may be starting to turn around for him after this weekend’s series against the Chicago Cubs. Seager was seeing the ball well at Wrigley, collecting four hits and four walks in 14 plate appearances over the weekend — including three doubles.
Tonight, he gets a very familiar matchup with Greinke. Seager has faced off against Greinke 31 times in his career — collecting eight hits and eight walks — with five of those hits going for extra bases. Seager has a crazy expected slugging percentage of 1.075 in those at bats.
Greinke hasn’t given up a ton of hard contact this season but has surrendered 14 hits in 11 1/3 innings of work so far in 2023, resulting in an opponent-expected batting average of .324.
I’m betting that Seager keeps getting more and more comfortable at the plate and goes Over his total bases for the fourth consecutive ball game.
Corey Seager Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+110)
Prop bet #3: TEASER
Fading Patrick Corbin has become a tradition like no other around these parts. He's become one of the most reliable moneymakers when it comes to MLB player props for a couple of reasons.
One, he has been one of the worst starters in baseball for the past few seasons. And secondly, it doesn’t matter how bad he’s been. The Washington Nationals have such few good pitching options, they tend to let Corbin stay out there and take his lumps, no matter how the game is going.
I don’t expect that to change in tonight’s matchup against the Los Angeles Angels.
Corbin has picked up right where he left off last season, a season in which he allowed more runs and hits than any pitcher in baseball. The southpaw has been tagged for 10 runs (eight earned) on 17 hits and three walks in just nine innings of work, and now he goes up against a piping-hot Angels lineup.
Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani are tearing the cover off the ball to start the season. Both have an OPS over 1.110 and three dingers apiece, but that is almost expected at this point. What has made the Angels more dangerous is that they are getting more out of everyone else. Guys like Gio Urshela, Logan O’Hoppe, and Hunter Renfroe have given this lineup more balance.
L.A. did a good job of jumping on sub-par Toronto Blue Jays starters Jose Berrios, and Yusei Kikuchi. I’m betting they’ll do that again against a guy who gave up four or more earned runs in more than half of his starts last season.
Patrick Corbin Prop: Over 3.5 earned runs (+120)
