A full slate means plenty of MLB player props to sift through.
Join me as I break down three of my favorite MLB picks for Tuesday, Aug. 25, including why Coby Mayo will torment Matthew Liberatore this evening.
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Alec Burleson |
Over 1.5 total bases | -102 |
 Coby Mayo |
Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI | +111 |
 Jackson Jobe |
Under 3.5 strikeouts | -132 |
Alec Burleson Over 1.5 total bases (-102)
St. Louis Cardinals slugger Alec Burleson has been hitting the cover off the ball over his last 10 games, but he has failed to leave the yard in eight of them.
Still, he has a 51.7% hard-hit rate and 10.3% barrel rate over that span, along with a .605 SLG and .237 ISO.
This evening, he draws Baltimore Orioles veteran right-hander Chris Bassitt, who has struggled in his most recent starts, sporting a 5.25 xERA, 1.79 WHIP, and just a 15.6% strikeout rate.
The last 30 left-handed hitters he has faced own a .328 xBA, .544 xSLG, and .454 xwOBA. Burleson covers almost 100% of Bassitt's arsenal, according to Batters-Box, where he also owns an elite rating.
Do not take this lower than the current number.
- Time: 7:45 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CARD, MASN
Coby Mayo Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (+111)
Sticking with this Orioles vs. Cardinals matchup, Coby Mayo finds himself in a great spot against Matthew Liberatore, who has been struggling against right-handed hitters as of late.
So far this season on the road against them, he is allowing a 67.9% elevation rate and 40.6% hard hit rate. The last 60 he has faced own a .315 xBA, .497 xSLG and a 10.8% barrel rate.
Mayo has been on a tear over his last ten games, producing a 55% hard hit rate and 20% barrel rate, while posting a .591 xSLG and .258 ISO. In his last 60 at-bats against left-handed pitching, he has a .764 SLG and .455 ISO.
Getting this prop above +110 is a gift. Anything above even money is a go.
- Time: 7:45 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CARD, MASN
Jackson Jobe Under 3.5 strikeouts (-132)
One of the hardest teams in baseball to strike out is the Tampa Bay Rays, who currently own the lowest strikeout rate on the season.
Over their last 21 games, they own the second-lowest. On top of that, during that stretch, they also own the highest contact rate in baseball at 81.8%.
This evening, they draw Detroit Tigers righty Jackson Jobe, who has struggled a ton since returning from injury. On the year, he owns a 5.49 xERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and an 18% strikeout rate.
With the Rays having eight bats with a strikeout rate under 20%, including six under 17.9%, Jobe should struggle to even sniff four strikeouts this evening.
Take this down to -135.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: DSN, RAYS
- Prop picks: 429-855, -20.0 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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