The last two days have been brutal, but a full Tuesday slate gives us the perfect chance to bounce back.
My MLB player props are counting on Hunter Goodman and Kyle Schwarber to lead us back into the green on June 30.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Ty France |
Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI | -137 |
 Hunter Goodman |
Over 1.5 total bases | -122 |
 Kyle Schwarber |
Over 0.5 doubles | Over 0.5 home runs | +495 | +167 |
Ty France Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-137)
A guy I have never backed once in my life, Mr. Ty France, welcome to my card!
The San Diego Padres first baseman enters today with an elite rating over on Batters-Box's current season dataset, while also boasting nearly 90% arsenal coverage against Chicago Cubs southpaw Matthew Boyd.
The Cubs left hander has been allowing a ton of elevation and hard contact to opposing right handed hitters. Over the last 30 he has faced, they are generating a 52.5% hard-hit rate, 13% barrel rate, and 74% elevation rate.
Is your mouth watering yet? Mine is.
France has torched left-handed pitching. To give you a delectable sample size, over his last 90 at-bats against lefties, he is hitting .300 with a .520 SLG and .877 OPS, while producing a 57% hard-hit rate and a 10.8% barrel rate.
With this already being a juicy-heavy prop, I would not play it any higher. If you cannot find a good number, I would pivot to his total bases instead.
- Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MARQ, SDPA
Hunter Goodman Over 1.5 total bases (-122)
Time to back one of the hottest hitters in baseball as he takes on the worst rated pitcher on the slate, per Batters-Box.
My pride and joy, Colorado Rockies star catcher Hunter Goodman, is two home runs away from cashing his preseason home run total, and I want to ride his hot streak. Of course, I am playing it safe by taking the Over on his bases prop tonight against Miami Marlins right hander Eury Perez.
Goodman has been tearing the cover off the ball, generating a 33.33% barrel rate and 66.67% hard-hit rate over his last five games. On top of that, he has nearly 64% arsenal coverage against all of Perez's pitches, with every expected batting average checking in at .290 or better.
On the other side, Perez brings an arsenal where half his pitches grade below league average. His fastball, which he throws 47% of the time, is his only above-average offering. Against fastballs this season, Goodman owns a .351 xBA, .750 OPS, .321 wOBA, and 58% hard contact.
I would not pay much more than the current price for this prop. If you are looking for a little more value, I would rather sprinkle his double or home run props.
- Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: COLR, MIAM
Kyle Schwarber Over 0.5 doubles (+495) | Over 0.5 home runs (+167)
Someone I am almost never looking to back on a total bases prop, because there is rarely any value, is Philadelphia Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber. We know his game — he is a true three outcome player.
I am a firm believer there are only two ways to attack him when he is in a great spot but the prices are awful:
- If you can get him below -170 for a hit.
- What we will be doing tonight, which is targeting his double and home run markets.
Schwarber enters Tuesday with the fifth-highest arsenal coverage among elite rated hitters on Batters-Box, covering 81.5% of Bubba Chandler's arsenal. Across 104 elite rated home matchups, the Phillies slugger has homered 34.62% of the time while recording a double just 14.2% of the time.
Sure, that is not the sexiest trend for the double, but that's why it's priced at nearly +500.
He is also recording two hits only 24% of the time. For those looking to lay the juice on his hit, he records at least one hit 63.46% of the time.
Schwarber owns an 80% hard-hit rate and a 13.3% barrel rate over his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching. Meanwhile, Chandler has allowed a 14.3% barrel rate and a 71.4% elevation rate over his last 30 plate appearances against left-handed hitters.
If Schwarber gets a hold of one tonight, it is going to be elevated, and it has a great chance of leaving the yard.
Do not pay juice unless it is for the 1+ hit!
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBCSP, SNP
- Prop picks: 247-472, +19.7 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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