Tyler Mahle is having a breakout season on the hill, and he's poised for another strong game against a struggling Astros lineup on Saturday night.
My MLB picks for today are also taking advantage of Gunnar Henderson's extreme hitting splits while backing Pete Crow-Armstrong in the Windy City.
Here are my best free MLB player props for May 17.
Best MLB player props today
Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 total bases (-110 at SportsInteraction)
Henderson Over 1.5 total bases (-115 at bet365)
Mahle Under 2.5 earned runs (-150 at bet365)
MLB props for May 17
Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 total bases (-110 at SportsInteraction)
There's a 20 mph wind blowing towards the outfield at Wrigley Field which will be extremely beneficial for Chicago Cubs slugger Pete Crow-Armstrong. The hard-hitting outfielder leads Chicago in doubles (11) and homers (12), and ranks fifth in the majors in total bases (98).
Crow-Armstrong slugs .585 with the platoon advantage which he'll have today against Chicago White Sox righty Sean Burke.
Burke has an expected ERA of 6.62 through eight starts. He's in the bottom 20th percentile in barrel rate and ground ball rate which will result in deep fly balls that should soar over the fence with the wind today.
Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 total bases (-115 at bet365)
After winning the AL Rookie of the Year Award in 2023, Baltimore Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson was named an All-Star last season. This year, Henderson has struggled against southpaws (slugging just .222) and on the road (slugging .360).
That said, he slashes .323/.370/.602 with the platoon advantage and slugs .569 at home. He'll have the platoon advantage against Washington Nationals starter Jake Irvin at Camden Yards today.
Irvin has an xERA of 5.76 and sits in the bottom 10th percentile in hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, and barrel rate. The Nats also have one of the worst bullpen in the majors, ranking 29th in ERA (6.52), and OBA (.286).
If that wasn't enough reason to like Henderson in this spot, there's also a stiff 13 mph breeze blowing towards the rightfield fence.
Tyler Mahle Under 2.5 earned runs (-150 at bet365)
Texas Rangers right-hander Tyler Mahle is having a breakout season, pitching to a 1.47 ERA with an OBA of .179 through nine starts.
Mahle ranks in the top 20th percentile in hard-hit rate and average exit velocity, so expect him to contain a Houston Astros lineup that is 28th in hard-hit rate and 30th in exit velocity. The 'Stros have been brutal on the road, where they plate just 3.65 runs per game with an OPS of .638.
Mahle hasn't surrendered more than 2.5 earned runs in any of his nine starts this year and has allowed fewer than 1.5 in seven of those outings.
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