Full slate MLB Friday is here! Let's fill up those cards and kick off the weekend on a high note!
Let's dive into my favorite MLB player props and MLB picks to attack on Friday, July 24.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 German Marquez |
Under 3.5 Strikeouts | -138 |
 Munetaka Murakami |
1+ Hit | -156 |
 Tomoyuki Sugano |
Over 5.5 Hits Allowed | -132 |
German Marquez Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-138)
Entering Friday, San Diego Padres right-hander German Marquez owns the lowest matchup strikeout rate among today's starters, according to Batters-Box.
On top of that, he has to face five elite-rated hitters and two hitters with strong ratings. The Miami Marlins also do not have a single hitter above the league average strikeout rate.
In 31 games with a poorly rated matchup strikeout rate, Marquez has gone under this prop 58.06% of the time. Across his last five starts, he owns just a 13.83% strikeout rate.
Even with the Marlins going through a cold stretch over the last few weeks, there is too much data on their side against Marquez for me to have any concern.
The right-hander has struggled recently, posting a 6.30 ERA, 5.68 xERA, and 1.80 WHIP over his last five starts.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MIAM, SDPA
Munetaka Murakami Over 0.5 Hits (-156)
If you are not in the juice paying business, take Munetaka Murakami's hits+runs+RBI prop instead. However, at this price, the floor is well worth it in my book.
The Chicago White Sox rookie has maintained a .273 BA, .922 OPS, and 54.5% hard hit rate over his last 30 at-bats against right-handed pitchers.
Not to mention, he enters Friday evening with an elite rating on Batters-Box, where he records a hit 66.67% of the time. He also covers over 73% of Houston Astros right-hander Spencer Arrighetti's arsenal.
Arrighetti throws fastballs and curveballs 68.9% of the time, and Murakami has found success against both offerings. He owns an expected batting average of at least .378 and is generating at least a 60% hard hit rate against each pitch.
Arrighetti has struggled heavily against left-handed hitters this season, and his recent outings have not shown much improvement. Over his last 60 batters faced, hitters are generating a 42.4% hard hit rate, 18.2% barrel rate, and just a 24.2% ground ball rate.
I think Murakami is due for a big outing at the dish. Give me the floor at -156.
- Time: 7:40p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CHSN, SCHN
Tomoyuki Sugano Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (-132)
According to Batters-Box's current season dataset, the highest rated offense on the day belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers, who own an average hitter matchup rating of 0.501.
To put that number into perspective, a hitter matchup rating above 0.450 is considered "elite." Milwaukee enters Friday with five elite-rated hitters and two more carrying strong ratings.
Despite the Brewers' recent cold streak, I fully expect them to get after Colorado Rockies right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano this evening. Sugano enters with one of the worst pitcher ratings on the slate while allowing the most hard contact among today's starters.
When Sugano receives a poor rating on Batters-Box, he allows 5+ hits 70.37% of the time, 6+ hits 55.56% of the time, and 7+ hits 29.63% of the time. In his last ten poorly rated outings, he has allowed 6+ hits in six games.
I would play this down to -135 at the most, or look toward the Brewers to go Over their first five team total.
- Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: COLR, BREW
- Prop picks: 332-625, -5.2 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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