Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Tucker Rakes Against the Guardians

Prop bet #1: Soto Over 1.5 total bases

Juan Soto has been everything the New York Yankees could have dreamed of and more. 

The 25-year-old outfielder is hitting .316 with a .981 OPS to go with seven home runs and 24 RBI. That’s the fifth most in the majors and I like the Yankees' slugger to have another big night at the dish in tonight’s matchup against the rival Baltimore Orioles.

The Orioles have pulled into a tie with N.Y. for first place in the American League East heading into this matchup, but handing the ball to Dean Kremer is a precarious undertaking.

It's been an uneven start to the season for the right hander and the advanced numbers don’t paint a pretty picture. Kremer owns a 5.40 expected ERA while surrendering a .271 expected batting average to opponents, and his opponent expected slugging percentage of .562 is in the Bottom 3% of the league.

It also probably won’t make him feel better to know Soto is hitting .312 with a 1.002 OPS when facing right-handed pitchers. 

Soto has at least one hit in all but seven of the Yankees 30 games this season and he's gone Over 1.5 total bases in three of his last six games — along with 57% of his appearances in 2024. At this price, in this matchup, there’s value in him to hit the Over once again.

Juan Soto prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+110 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Tucker Over 1.5 total bases

The Houston Astros host the Cleveland Guardians tonight, and if I told you before the season one of these teams would be 19-9 and the other would be 9-19 heading into this game, you were not getting the answer right.

That’s because we're watching the rapid decline of the Astros. That said, it has been mostly due to some God-awful pitching. you can’t really blame this downfall on the bats. Specifically, the bat of Kyle Tucker. 

Despite all the early losses, the 27-year-old continues to do his thing. Tucker is hitting .290 with a .948 OPS to go along with seven home runs and 20 RBI, and he’s been even more locked in of late.

Tucker has hits in nine of his last 10 games, good for a .351 average and a 1.130 OPS, and has topped 1.5 total bases seven times during that period. Tonight he gets a juicy matchup against Guardians starter Carlos Carrasco. 

The veteran righty is pitching to a 4.40 expected ERA and a 1.63 WHIP, while his strikeout and walk rates are in the Bottom 28% of pitchers or worse. Not surprisingly, lefties are doing most of the damage vs. Carrasco, getting to him for a .298 batting average and a .942 OPS.

Suffice to say, Carrasco hasn’t really been a part of Cleveland’s success, and I love the value of Tucker staying hot tonight.

Kyle Tucker prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+130 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Adell Over 0.5 hits

Heater alert!

The baseball must look like a beach ball to a certain Los Angeles Angels outfielder Jo Adell. The former Angels’ top prospect is looking like his breakout season may happen in 2024. 

Adell has hits in seven of his last eight games, good for a .407 batting average with a 1.299 OPS. That includes three home runs and eight RBI. He’s also had two or more total bases six times over that stretch. 

The hot streak means Adell has forced his way up the batting order. Last night against the Philadelphia Phillies, he hit in the two-hole, going 1-for-4 with a HR, and it appears sportsbooks haven’t adjusted to all this yet.

Adell is still -120 to record a hit tonight, while his teammates around him have odds nowhere near that good. Trout is -200 to get a hit, and Taylor Ward is -220. Hell, the best price on Brandon Drury is -170.

Adell will face off against Spencer Turnbull tonight, who has been solid, but at this price, you're firing on this bet if it was Pedro Martinez pitching. 

Our Covers Prop Projections also have Over 0.5 RBIs at +300 as a 4-star play, while 2+ total bases at +210 looks solid as well.

Jo Adell prop: Over 0.5 hits (-120 at DraftKings)