MLB Predictions and Moneyline Picks for Wednesday, July 1

We have reached the halfway point of the week, and with it comes a loaded slate full of baseball goodness.

Keep reading for my MLB picks and moneyline leans for every game on the board. 

MLB moneyline picks for July 1

Matchup	Pick
White Sox vs Orioles	+122
Rangers vs Guardians	-100
Tigers vs Yankees	+127
Nationals vs Red Sox	-133
Padres vs Cubs	+115
Mets vs Blue Jays	+100
Pirates vs Phillies	-130
Cardinals vs Braves	+122
Rays vs Royals	-125
Reds vs Brewers	-153
Twins vs Astros	-122
Marlins vs Rockies	+147
Dodgers vs Athletics	-160
Giants vs Diamondbacks	+115

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Expert MLB moneyline picks for July 1

White Sox vs Orioles: White Sox (+122)

White Sox win probability: 45%

I said it yesterday, and I will say it again. Until the books start putting some respect on the Chicago White Sox, I think they're an autoplay at plus money. I'm not saying this is the best team in baseball by any means, but I don't think they should be underdogs day in and day out like this.

Rangers vs Guardians: Rangers (-100)

Rangers win probability: 50%

Both teams bring red-hot arms to the table, but only one team has an offense with a wRC+ above 112, .331 wOBA, and .747 over their last 21 games, and that's the Texas Rangers. I want to continue to ride the team that is clicking on all cylinders. 

Tigers vs Yankees: Tigers (+127)

Tigers win probability: 44%

Why on Earth would we back the New York Yankees right now? First, Will Warren owns a 6.49 xERA and 2.02 WHIP over his last three outings. Even if you zoom out to his last five, his xERA still sits at an ugly 5.50.

Then there is the offense. Over their last six games, the Yankees have posted a 9 wRC+ (!), a .400 OPS, and a .090 ISO. Give me the Detroit Tigers. 

Nationals vs Red Sox: Red Sox (-133)

Red Sox win probability: 57%

After last night's brawl, I want to lean on the home team. They got embarrassed 8-1, and what better way to punch your opponent right back than by hanging a big number on them the next day?

I also like Payton Tolle in this spot. The Washington Nationals are far from a scary offense against left-handed pitching, and this feels like a good bounce-back spot for the home side.

Padres vs Cubs: Padres (+115)

Padres win probability: 46%

The San Diego Padres' bats have awakened, and Walker Buehler has been downright nasty as of late. The San Diego right-hander owns a 1.71 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and a 25% strikeout rate over his last five starts. Meanwhile, the offense has been humming along with a 136 wRC+, .816 OPS, and .363 wOBA over its last six games.

With Colin Rea on the mound for the Chicago Cubs, I think the Padres get their revenge and take one back tonight.

Mets vs Blue Jays: Blue Jays (+100)

Blue Jays win probability: 50%

Take whoever gives you the better bang for your buck, because both of these offenses have been ice cold at the plate.

That said, Freddy Peralta has been brutal on the road this season, posting a 5.40 ERA and 1.42 WHIP, while allowing opponents to generate nearly a 45% hard-hit rate. Give me the team facing the more vulnerable arm.

Pirates vs Phillies: Phillies (-130)

Phillies win probability: 56%

I am going to lean on the veteran arm in this spot, as Zack Wheeler has been absolutely nails lately. Over his last five starts, he owns a 1.71 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, and a 29% strikeout rate.

This Pittsburgh Pirates offense has been solid, but I think the Philadelphia Phillies are in the better spot overall. Paul Skenes has looked more vulnerable lately, coming off a couple of shaky outings, and I trust Wheeler and the Phillies to capitalize tonight.

Cardinals vs Braves: Cardinals (+122)

Cardinals win probability: 45%

Until the Atlanta Braves fully turn things around, getting their opponents at plus money feels like a gift. They have been one of the coldest teams in baseball over the last 30 days, and I want no part of laying juice until they prove they have figured things out.

Rays vs Royals: Rays (-125)

Rays win probability: 56%

Speaking of paying for juice, do it. You want to step in front of the freight train that is the Tampa Bay Rays by taking the Kansas City Royals in this spot? Really?

The Rays have been on an absolute tear, posting a 176 wRC+, .420 wOBA, .974 OPS, and .262 ISO over their last six games. Pay the juice.

Reds vs Brewers: Brewers (-153)

Brewers win probability: 60%

I initially leaned toward the Cincinnati Reds due to the sudden spark in their offense. However, they have struggled against lefties this season, and Milwaukee Brewers southpaw Shane Drohan has been nails as of late. Plus, this Brewers offense has been consistent over their last 21 games.

Twins vs Astros: Astros (-122)

Astros win probability: 55%

Taj Bradley is on the mound this evening for the Minnesota Twins, and that alone pushes me toward the home team in this spot. Especially with how well Tatsuya Imai has been throwing, posting a 2.66 xERA over his last five starts and a 2.36 xERA over his last three outings, along with a 35.35% strikeout rate in that five-game stretch.

Trust the red-hot arm and back the Houston Astros.

Marlins vs Rockies: Rockies (+147)

Rockies win probability: 40%

This is just a vibes-and-value play. I know Kyle Freeland has struggled, posting a 6.75 ERA at home this season. However, I would not want to pay juice for the Miami Marlins, especially with this Colorado Rockies offense seeing the ball extremely well.

Plus, coming off a two-touchdown game, I expect regression from Miami. Give me the Rockies.

Dodgers vs Athletics: Dodgers (-160)

Dodgers win probability: 62%

This Los Angeles Dodgers offense is white hot at the moment, and I would not want to step in front of that just to chase plus money. Sometimes you just have to lay the price and trust the form. 

Giants vs Diamondbacks: Giants (+115)

Giants win probability: 46%

Snagging the San Francisco Giants at plus money against Zac Gallen feels like a gift.

Gallen has been in a rough stretch, posting a 9.18 ERA, 7.82 xERA, and a 1.68 WHIP over his last three starts. He has been one of the more vulnerable starters in baseball recently, and when an arm is allowing that much early damage, I want to back the value on the other side. Give me the Giants in this spot.

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.

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