Tonight’s MLB player props slate is loaded with heavy hitters in strong matchups. Can guys like Yordan Alvarez or Shea Langeliers cash in and send one out of the yard for us tonight?
My best home run props for Tuesday, June 30 certainly hope so.
Best MLB home run props today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Yordan Alvarez |
+224 |
 Shea Langeliers |
+225 |
 Ty France |
+336 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +4491 |
Home run pick: Yordan Alvarez (+224)
My MLB picks are out for revenge. Be mad at me all you want, but we have to go right back to Yordan Alvarez and Shea Langeliers this evening.
First, let us get through Alvarez. The big fella enters with an elite rating on Batters-Box while covering 76.8% of Joe Ryan's entire pitch mix.
Despite Ryan's recent success, he is still allowing hitters to generate nearly a 50% hard-hit rate over his last five outings. Sure, Alvarez is batting .200 with a .400 slugging percentage, but he is still barreling the ball nearly 15% of the time.
With Ryan leaning heavily on his four-seam fastball and Alvarez sporting a .412 xBA, .988 OPS, and 60% hard contact rate against fastballs, I want to run this back again.
- Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Twins.TV, SCHN
Home run pick: Shea Langeliers (+225)
For the third straight day, we are going back to Langeliers. No, this is not a chase.
Langeliers just continues to find himself in great spots against southpaws. Not only that, but he enters today with the highest arsenal coverage among the elite-rated hitters this evening, covering 93.2% of Justin Wrobleski's pitch mix.
The Dodgers' left hander has been allowing a concerning amount of hard contact to opposing hitters. Over his last five starts, hitters are barreling the ball nearly 9% of the time while producing a 52.7% hard-hit rate.
More recently, over the last 30 right handed hitters he has faced, they are elevating the ball 64% of the time while posting a 48% hard-hit rate and a 12% barrel rate. Those hitters also own a .443 xBA, .578 xSLG, and .377 xwOBA during that stretch.
So I'm supposed to look at those numbers and ignore them because he failed to come through over the last two days? No way.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SNLA, NBCSCA
Home run pick: Ty France (+336)
San Diego Padres first baseman Ty France enters today with an elite rating over on Batters-Box's current season dataset, while also covering almost 90% of Chicago Cubs southpaw Matthew Boyd's entire pitch mix.
France has been torching left-handed pitching over his last 90 at-bats, hitting .300 with a .520 SLG and .877 OPS, while producing a 57% hard-hit rate and a 10.8% barrel rate.
The Cubs left-hander has been allowing a ton of elevation and hard contact to opposing right-handed hitters. Over the last 30 he's faced, they are generating a 52.5% hard-hit rate, 13% barrel rate, and a 74% elevation rate.
Allowing that much elevation and hard contact, with France generating the same amount, I am expecting some fireworks on the North Side this evening.
- Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MARQ, SDPA
- HR picks: 65-234, +10.2 units
Today’s HR parlay
| Yordan Alvarez |
Bet Now +4491 |
| Shea Langeliers |
|
| Ty France |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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